Saturday, November 19, 2011

Severe Weather Threat Southern Plains Sunday and Monday...

Above is the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC in Norman, OK, valid for Sunday, November 20th. Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow shaded areas on the image, from northcentral Texas into southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas.

A developing area of low pressure in the low levels of the atmosphere will combine with a series of weak disturbances and increasing low-level moisture to create a threat of severe storms by late afternoon or evening in the indicated area.  Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats.

On Monday, a similar threat will cover the same region, and expand a bit to the Southwest in Texas, as low level moisture and instability continue to increase across the region ahead of a frontal boundary:

The wind damage threat is likely to be higher on Monday compared to Sunday, as winds are forecast to increase at all levels of the atmosphere.  Folks across this region should monitor for later updates as to severe weather potential on both Sunday and Monday...

The good news is that this will spell additional rainfall potential for at least some parts of the Lone Star State, as shown by the latest GFS model accumulated rainfall forecast.  This is for the period Sunday through Monday (scale in inches on the right):

While the heavier and more concentrated rains will again favor northcentral Texas and the Red River region, anywhere within the darker grey shaded areas could receive a locally heavy downpour that could equate to a half inch or so of rain (mainly on Monday further South and West)...

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