Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Severe Weather Threat Shifts East Today; Some Rain for Body of Texas...

A somewhat broken line of thunderstorms, some strong, continues to move slowly Eastward across southwest, central and northcentral Texas this morning, while a fairly widespread area of light to moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms continues across the eastern half of Oklahoma (see latest radar mosaic image above).

The thunderstorms in Texas are along and ahead of a surface cool front that is moving slowly Eastward across the state.  The latest run of the experimental HRRR Computer Model is forecasting the line of storms to move into the San Antonio and Austin areas between 11am and 12 Noon CST, based on present movement and intensity:

HRRR Model Forecast Valid 11am CST Today

It remains to be seen whether or not the line will be as strong when it gets to the Austin-San Antonio corridor, but hopefullly we'll at least get some measurable rain in a few spots from it.  I do not have a concern about severe weather in the Austin-San Antonio corridor as a result of this line.

The SPC in Norman, OK is forecasting the severe weather threat to shift Eastward along and ahead of the front today, from east-central and northeast Texas on Northeastward into much of Arkansas and southeast Missouri, as indicated by the yellow shaded area on the image below:

Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible with severe storms in this region today.  The main threat will come from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours, as strong to severe storms develop and or reintensify along and ahead of the surface cold front.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat today, although to a somewhat lesser extent compared to yesterday.  The latest total rainfall forecast for today is shown below:

Folks living across the severe weather threat area should remain alert today and listen for later statements, watches and warnings.

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