Monday, November 14, 2011

Rain Event Still Appears Likely to Develop Overnight in Texas...

The series of images below are a forecast by the NAM computer model of what the radar will look like each hour on the hour beginning at 6am CST Tuesday morning, and ending at 12 Noon CST Tuesday:

As you can see, the model is forecasting a cluster of shower and thunderstorm activity to approach the I-35 corridor from the West by 6am CST, and move into the Austin/San Antonio area between 7 and 8am CST, right during the morning rush hour.  The model then forecasts the activity to continue Eastward into the Houston area by 11am CST.

Locally heavy downpours, dangerous lightning, hail to near severe limits and strong, gusty winds will all be possible in association with this activity.

Thunderstorms are increasing along and West of the Rio Grande and Big Bend in southwest Texas this evening, and will continue to organize and increase Eastward into the region overnight (note, the Del Rio area radar shown below is having some technical issues this evening and is depicting the rain to be heavier than it really is.  Please use this image as a guide to where the rain is falling, rather than a gauge as to the intensity of the rain at this time):

If you live West of I-35 in southcentral Texas or the Hill Country, it would be a good idea to keep your NOAA Weather Radio turned on overnight (with backup batteries installed) should threatening weather develop and/or move into your area.

The best news out of all of this continues to be the promise of locally heavy rainfall.  Widespread rains of 1 inch with localized amounts near 2 inches are possible in many areas:

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