Monday, November 21, 2011

Update on Severe Weather Threat Today & Tuesday...

A threat of severe thunderstorms continues for portions of the southern Plains today and the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region on Tuesday.

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the SPC in Norman, OK.  Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow shaded areas on the image.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of a cold front that is forecast to remain nearly stationary from portions of southwest and southcentral into northeast Texas this afternoon and evening.

The greatest threat of severe weather, including damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes, will exist along and immediately ahead of the front, which corresponds with the yellow shaded area on the image below.  This includes the Austin-San Antonio Metro area:

Other thunderstorms may produce hail and wind gusts near severe limits well to the North of the front, across the remainder of the severe weather outlook area from the 1st image.

The most likely timing for severe weather within the above areas today will be from mid-afternoon into the evening hours.

By Tuesday, the severe weather threat will shift Eastward into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region, within the yellow shaded area on the image below:

Once again on Tuesday, the greatest threat will take place during the afternoon and into the evening hours.  Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes are all possible in this region on Tuesday.

Folks living in or travelling across the severe weather outlook areas for today and Tuesday should remain alert and listen to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for later statements, watches and possible warnings.  Be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

Locally heavy rainfall will continue in association with the front and upper level weather disturbances today and Tuesday as well.  Below are the latest forecasts for total rainfall today and Tuesday, respectively:

I'll have a more detailed post around midday regarding how today's severe weather situation is likely to unfold...

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