Sunday, November 6, 2011

Strong Tornadoes Possible in SW OK / NW TX on Monday...

As first mentioned several days ago and again in the weekly outlook yesterday, a pronounced risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, is coming together for portions of the central and southern Plains (particularly across Oklahoma and northwest Texas) on Monday.

Below is the latest severe weather outlook for Monday from the SPC in Norman, OK:

Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the above image.  In particular, there is a pronounced risk for severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds and a few strong tornadoes across portions of southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas, as indicated by the red and black hatched area on the image below:

Thunderstorms may develop as early as the overnight hours tonight and the pre-dawn hours on Monday across portions of northwest Texas and Oklahoma, as middle and upper-level energy increase across the region and interact with increasing low-level moisture.  Some of these storms could produce hail to near severe limits even that early on in the day.

By late afternoon or early evening on Monday, severe storms are forecast to develop on a more organized basis along and ahead of a dryline and area of surface low pressure from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas:

GFS Model Surface Forecast Valid 6pm CST Monday

These storms will be capable of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could become strong.  This activity will likely congeal into a solid line of severe storms later in the evening and move Northeast across the remainder of the region.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with this activity.  Widespread rainfall of 1 inch plus is forecast within the blue shaded areas on the image below, with localized amounts over 2 inches possible, especially near the red shaded areas:  

GFS Rainfall thru 6am CST Tuesday 11-8-11

Residents across this region should review severe weather preparedness plans today.  Replace batteries your NOAA Weather Radio and emergency flash lights.  Monitor the weather closely on Monday afternoon and be prepared to seek shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning issued.

The threat of severe weather will shift East into the Mississippi Valley region on Tuesday, so folks that way please stay alert!

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