Friday, August 12, 2011

Severe Weather Update - Kansas / Missouri / Oklahoma / Arkansas

A broken band of thunderstorms continues to advance southeast from central Missouri into southeast Kansas at midday (see radar image above), while a smaller cluster of storms continues to approach northwest Arkansas from extreme northeast Oklahoma (see radar image below):

This activity has either continued Southeast from overnight thunderstorms, or developed along outflow boundaries that were left behind by the same overnight activity.  Some of these storms may intensify and become severe over adjacent portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri later this afternoon as heating increases and the atmosphere becomes more unstable.

The "main show" still appears likely to develop later this afternoon and into this evening across portions of southern and central Kansas.  Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along several boundaries in this region by late afternoon, and then organize as they move and develop toward the East and then Southeast later this evening and overnight.

While an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out during the initial development stages of this activity over parts of Kansas, damaging winds (possibly widespread) will be the primary threat with this activity.  This activity is expected to congeal into a larger complex of storms, which is likely to move into Northern portions of Oklahoma by late evening or overnight (while still producing a damaging wind threat).

Large hail will also be possible with this activity, particularly over Kansas and near the Oklahoma border.

If you live across this region, please remain alert and listen for later statements, watches, and possible warnings.

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