Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Tropical System In the Gulf to Wreak Havoc on Forecasters...

In a post yesterday morning, I remarked that a tropical disturbance developing between the Yucatan and Cuba could bring some much needed rain to Texas and/or Louisiana by Labor Day weekend.  That system has since moved Northward, and is currently entering the Gulf of Mexico, as shown by the yellow circled area on the visible satellite image above.  It has since been dubbed "Invest 93" (meaning an area of worthy of "Investigation") by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The computer models are literally all over the place with this one, as you can see on the latest computer model composite track image below:

Some, like the GFS model (see image below), wobble the system around in the Northwest Gulf for a few days, then bring it onshore across the Northcentral or Northeast Gulf during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday:

GFS Model Valid 1am CDT Tuesday, 9-6-11

By the way, if the above scenario comes to pass, then very heavy rain will gradually spread Northeast across areas battered by Hurricane Irene by the middle and end of next week.

On the other side of the track forecast spectrum, the European (ECMWF) model wobbles the system around the Northwest Gulf for a few days before moving it back to the Southwest and shows it making landfall in South Texas on Wednesday morning:

ECMWF Model Valid 7am CDT Wednesday, 9-7-11

Frankly, at this point, it's just too early to tell which scenario (or one of the many in between) will come to pass....

As I pointed out on yesterday's post, if you have travel plans for Labor Day weekend along the Gulf Coast, please keep an eye on the latest information regarding this system, which when named, will most likely be called "Lee".

Meanwhile, the cold front that I mentioned in yesterday's post will continue uninterrupted into the Southern Plains on Monday, as shown by the latest GFS computer model image (with my notations) below:

While we'll certainly take the cooler temperatures alone here in Texas, we'd love to get in on some rain from Lee as well.  We'll just have to see how that situation develops over the coming days...

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