Update on Disturbance Near Florida...

The area of disturbed weather that was located just West of Cuba yesterday has since moved East/Northeastward rather rapidly, and will continue to pass just to the South of Florida today.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today across southern Florida, the Keys and adjacent waters, with locally heavy amounts of 1-2 inches possible in some areas:

Middle and upper-level weather conditions are not favorable for this system to develop any further, so I wouldn't expect more than a rainmaker out of this system the way it looks right now...

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Area of Disturbed Weather Forming West of Cuba (Active Tropics on Superbowl Sunday?!?!)

When you think of SuperBowl Sunday, the first thing that comes to mind is probably not a tropical weather system. After all, it is early February, right?

Well, an area of disturbed weather is indeed forming in the Tropics, to the West of Cuba and Southwest of Florida this morning:

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring this area for additional organization and/or development. An early look at a few of the tropical weather computer models generally track the system to the Northeast across the Florida peninsula over the next few days:

Regardless of whether or not the system ever obtains a tropical designation, rain and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase over central and southern Florida for the next few days.  The latest image from the Key West, FL radar shows widespread shower and thunderstorm activity already spreading into the Keys this hour:

The HPC is forecasting widespread 1-2 inch rains across the Keys and south Florida for the next 2 days:

If this system does become further organized, rain is likely to become much more widespread and much heavier than currently indicated on the above forecast image.

Folks with interests across southern and central Florida should keep an eye on this system over the next 24-48 hours.

The last storm that I could find that was formally designated as a tropical system during the month of February (in North Atlantic basin) was the "Groundhog's Day" storm of 1952.  That system began very near where this one is currently located, and eventually tracked through south Florida and up the U.S. East Coast.

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Will It Be "3 Strikes & You're Out" for Florida Next Week???

Above is the latest visible satellite image over the western Atlantic, with a yellow circle around Invest 96, the latest disturbance to pop-up to the South of the Yucatan peninsula.  The same disturbance is circled on the corresponding infrared satellite image below:

So far this month we've had 2 systems make an attempt at being a tropical storm or hurricane and impact Florida (the unnamed storm that should have been named back on the 9th, and Invest 95 that affected the state earlier this week).  Will Invest 96 on the above images break the trend, or will it be "3 strikes and you're out" for the sunshine state as far as October landfalling storms go?

Below is the latest composite image showing the short to medium range computer models, which agree the system will track North/Northwestward and intensify:

In the medium to longer range, the GFS model shows the system as a Hurricane on the Western tip of Cuba at 8am EDT on Thursday, October 27th, as shown in the image below:

The ECMWF model agrees, with a nearly identical projection valid at the same time, as shown on the image below:

The ECMWF model goes on to show an impact along the Florida coast, to the South of Tampa Bay, by 8am EDT on Friday, October 28th:

The GFS model ultimately depicts a different solution for Florida, showing the system meandering around Western Cuba at the end of next week before being redirected Eastward ahead of a cold frontal boundary, as shown in the following image valid 8am EDT on Saturday, October 29th:

I think there is little question at this time that we will have a Tropical Storm or Hurricane near Western Cuba by Thursday of next week.  The exact time of arrival of the surface cold front and upper-level trough to the region at the end of next week will determine whether the system moves Northward into Florida, or is picked up by the front and redirected to the South and East of the state.

Stay tuned, because this will be interesting either way!

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Tropical Disturbance Continues to Organize Near Yucatan...

Above is the latest visible satellite image of the tropical disturbance that we've been talking about near the Yucatan for the past several days.  The corresponding infrared satellite image is shown below:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has dubbed the system "Invest 95L", which means they are paying a bit more attention for signs of development.  This initiates close-up satellite surveillance, such as the images you see above, as well as hurricane hunter aircraft flights into the system for more detailed observations.  All of this data is fed into the computer models which should also produce a more reliable product there as well...

Thunderstorms are becoming more organized near the center of the disturbance this morning, and wind gusts to tropical storm force have been observed by ships passing through the Yucatan Channel (in the Northeast quadrant of the system).

The latest radar image from the Cancun, Mexico site shows less intense precipitation taking place on the Western side of the system at this time:

This corresponds well with the satellite imagery above, which suggests that the stronger thunderstorm activity is  currently taking place on the Eastern side of the system.

Speaking of the computer models, the GFS continues to show this system meeting with with a cold front and moving East/Northeast toward Florida by mid-week.  The latest image valid 8pm EDT on Tuesday, 10-18-11, is shown below:

This trend matches up rather well with the remainder of the model consensus, which is shown on the image below:

Regardless as to whether or not the system has tropical characteristics when it impacts Florida late Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread, heavy rainfall will be a major problem across the region, as alluded to in the outlook that I posted yesterday.  In the meantime, we'll need to keep a close eye on this system today and Monday in an effort to determine what other impacts may potentially be felt across Florida...

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Update on Short to Medium Range Tropical Activity in Gulf of Mexico...

Above are the latest visible and infrared satellite images, respectively, showing anarea of disturbed weather near the Yucatan peninsula (circled in yellow).  I first alluded to the fact that we should be monitoring this area for tropical development in a post on Tuesday.  So far so good, but some changes have developed with respect to how this system is expected to track later next week - and more specifically next weekend.


In the post on Tuesday I described how a rather strong cold front would move into the Gulf by mid week next week, and at the time the models were forecasting the tropical disturbance to remain just South of the associated middle and upper-level steering winds and eventually had the system tracking back Westward toward Mexico by next weekend.


The last several runs of the computer models now have the system being "picked up" by the stronger middle and upper level steering currents, and shift the system to the East toward Florida over time.  It is also interesting to note that they really don't depict the system retaining any tropical characteristics either, but rather show the cold front "absorbing" the system and spreading heavy rains East/Northeast along the frontal boundary.


First, lets take a look at how the GFS model handles the system, valid at 12 hour increments beginning 2pm EDT on Saturday, October 22nd (disturbance circled in yellow on each image):

As you can see, the model brings the system (or whats left of it after having been absorbed into the cold frontal boundary) Eastward into Florida by 2pm EDT on Monday, October 24th.

The other model cited in the post earlier this week, the ECMWF, has also shifted and is now forecasting the system to become completely absorbed by the cold front over the central Gulf of Mexico, with precipitation spreading Eastward into Florida as well.

At this point I wouldn't completely write-off the more Western track solutions that were shown earlier this week, as it still remains to be seen just how far South the influence of the middle and upper level steering winds will be felt.  The main point to be taken from both the early week and current model trends is that we need to keep a close eye on this system over the Yucatan and watch how it will be influenced by the larger steering currents later this coming week.

That's what keeps life - particularly involving the weather - interesting, I suppose...

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Just What Exactly Is Going on Near the Florida Coast???

An area of low pressure continues to develop just off of the East coast of Florida this afternoon. I've circled roughly the center of the system in yellow on the above visible satellite image.  The latest image from the Melbourne radar suggests that the center of the system is located about 95 miles to the East/Southeast of Cape Canaveral...

The system is drifting toward the West/Northwest at about 10-15 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.


A NOAA data buoy located about 20 miles East of Cape Canaveral (see below) has shown a steady decrease in pressure and a steady increase in both sustained winds and gusts over the past few hours:

As you can see on the above graph of the data from that buoy, sustained winds of 40 mph with gusts to near 52 mph have been observed over the past couple of hours, along with a minimum pressure of 29.84 inches of mercury, and steadily falling...


Thus far the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is treating this system as "extratropical" (meaning they feel that it lacks tropical characteristics).  None-the-less, they give the system a "30 percent chance of development" during the next 48 hours.


Regardless of what the NHC decides to do with this system, it is already causing quite a few problems along the east Florida coast, with very heavy rains and gale force wind gusts battering the region.  This trend will continue into tonight.


The GFS model forecasts the system to move from near its current position (model forecast valid 5pm EDT today):

...then moves the center of the storm Westward across the middle third of the state and then back out over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico off of the coast West of Tampa Bay by 8am EDT tomorrow morning:

The model then wobbles the system generally between there and the Florida panhandle for much of Monday and Tuesday before ejecting it toward the North/Northeast off of the Georgia/South Carolina coast by 8am EDT Wednesday morning (as a much weaker system by that time):

Regardless of whether the storm becomes tropical and/or "named", folks in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will have some wet and windy weather coming up (if not already underway as I pointed out in Florida earlier).

The latest HPC forecast calls for as much as 4 inches of rain across portions of southeast Georgia, northern Florida and portions of South Carolina for the period 8pm EDT today through 8pm EDT Tuesday:

In a post back on Tuesday the 4th I pointed out that the computer models were hinting at some type of development in this region for Tuesday the 11th.  The European model was indicating development in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS was forecasting a system off of the northern Florida coast.  It certainly looks like some sort of a hybrid concoction of those two model solutions from last week will indeed come to pass...

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Tropics: Update on Katia; Maria and Nate Waiting In the Wings?

The above visible satellite image shows Hurricane Katia centered about 370 miles South of Bermuda, and moving toward the Northwest at 9 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were estimated 120 mph with a minimum barometric pressure of 28.17 inches of mercury (954 millibars).

All of the major computer forecast models during the last 24 hours have continued to come into consensus that Katia will turn out to sea late tomorrow and Thursday, before making a significant impact on the U.S.  The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast is below:

...which largely lies down the middle of the model consensus:

Katia is a large storm, and even though the center will pass well to the East of the U.S. Coast as currently forecast, increasing wave action and strong rip currents can be expected from the Carolinas on Northward beginning late tomorrow and continuing through at least Saturday (while spreading from South to North).

The images below are experimental wave forecast models that show the potential wave action along the Carolina and Virginia coasts by 11am EDT on Thursday the 8th:

...and off the New England coast by 11am EDT on Friday the 9th:

 

The bright green shaded areas just to the East of the immediate coastline depict the models estimate of 5-7 meter (16-23 foot) waves.  All of this increased wave action will also produce dangerous rip currents all along the adjacent portions of the Eastern seaboard toward the end of the week as well...

Something pretty drastic would have to take place in the atmosphere in order for Katia to veer West of the current forecast track.  The remnants of Lee along with a trough of low pressure across the Eastern U.S. toward the end of the week are both expected to result in the Northward (and eventual Northeastward) turn of Katia (see latest GFS computer model image valid 11am EDT Thursday, below).  We should start to see the beginning of that turn as early as tomorrow evening as the center of Katia approaches 70 degrees West Longitude, so keep an eye out for that...

Meanwhile, there are two other disturbances that bear close watching over the coming days....

The first is currently a little more than 600 miles West/Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, and moving toward the West/Northwest:

I would expect this disturbance to be named a Depression later today, and the computer models generally carry the system toward the West/Northwest and then Northwest over the next 5 days:

The second area to watch is much closer to home, currently taking shape over the far southern Gulf of Mexico:

This system is still in the early development stage, however it bears watching over the next few days.  Some of the computer models eventually take it directly Southwest into Mexico, while others track it toward the Northeast across the Gulf toward the southeast U.S. over the weekend.

While it's way too early to tell what this system is going to do, I am afraid to say that folks in Texas (including yours truly) should not get their hopes up for rain out of this system, as a building area of high pressure to our West and Northwest later this week will likely steer the system away from us - regardless of the exact direction...

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Tropical Update - Much Uncertainty Still Exists...

As I mentioned yesterday, the models are having a horrible time trying to resolve the future track of both the system developing in the Gulf of Mexico (which is likely to become either "Lee" or "Maria", as well as Hurricane Katia.  (Yes, I know Katia was recently "downgraded" to a Tropical Storm, but she'll be back to Hurricane status within 12-24 hours, so I'm trying not to confuse matters too much - which I probably just did, but oh well...).


Anyway, lets look at the future "Lee" or "Maria" in the Gulf of Mexico first.  The latest run of the GFS model (which took place at 1pm CDT today) is forecasting the system to make landfall (after wobbling around the Northwest Gulf of Mexico for a few days) along the Louisiana coast at 7am CDT on Labor Day/Monday, as shown on the image below:

Meanwhile, the latest run of the ECMWF (European) model (which took place at 7am CDT this morning) is forecasting landfall very close to the same location, but 24 hours later, at 7am CDT on Tuesday:

"Consensus" (if there is such a thing) between these two models is currently trending toward a Louisiana landfall.  The Texas coast is also forecast to receive rain by both models over the weekend and prior to landfall, the exact extent of which will obviously depend on the ultimate size, strength and path of the system.  Message here is simply:  "Stay tuned for updates..."  As I've been saying for 3 days now, if you have plans along the Gulf Coast this Labor Day Weekend, please keep an eye on the weather.

Meanwhile, we also have Katia to deal with.  All of the major computer models have shifted Westward and Southward with her track today.  Below are the latest GFC and ECMWF model forecasts (respectively), valid at 1pm CDT on Wednesday (GFS) and 7am CDT on Wednesday (ECMWF):

As you can see, both models are forecasting a formidable Hurricane Katia edging ever closer to the Eastern U.S.  What happens beyond this timeframe is still up for debate, with a few of the models bringing the system further Westward, and the majority forecasting an abrupt turn back out to sea.   

The key feature that will likely affect the movement of Katia after Wednesday is the exact position of an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Northeast U.S. toward the end of next week.  If it comes in slower than expected, Katia is likely to continue moving West/Northwestward.  If the trough comes in faster, she'll be turned out to sea.  Again... "Stay tuned for updates!"

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Tropical System In the Gulf to Wreak Havoc on Forecasters...

In a post yesterday morning, I remarked that a tropical disturbance developing between the Yucatan and Cuba could bring some much needed rain to Texas and/or Louisiana by Labor Day weekend.  That system has since moved Northward, and is currently entering the Gulf of Mexico, as shown by the yellow circled area on the visible satellite image above.  It has since been dubbed "Invest 93" (meaning an area of worthy of "Investigation") by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The computer models are literally all over the place with this one, as you can see on the latest computer model composite track image below:

Some, like the GFS model (see image below), wobble the system around in the Northwest Gulf for a few days, then bring it onshore across the Northcentral or Northeast Gulf during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday:

GFS Model Valid 1am CDT Tuesday, 9-6-11

By the way, if the above scenario comes to pass, then very heavy rain will gradually spread Northeast across areas battered by Hurricane Irene by the middle and end of next week.

On the other side of the track forecast spectrum, the European (ECMWF) model wobbles the system around the Northwest Gulf for a few days before moving it back to the Southwest and shows it making landfall in South Texas on Wednesday morning:

ECMWF Model Valid 7am CDT Wednesday, 9-7-11

Frankly, at this point, it's just too early to tell which scenario (or one of the many in between) will come to pass....

As I pointed out on yesterday's post, if you have travel plans for Labor Day weekend along the Gulf Coast, please keep an eye on the latest information regarding this system, which when named, will most likely be called "Lee".

Meanwhile, the cold front that I mentioned in yesterday's post will continue uninterrupted into the Southern Plains on Monday, as shown by the latest GFS computer model image (with my notations) below:

While we'll certainly take the cooler temperatures alone here in Texas, we'd love to get in on some rain from Lee as well.  We'll just have to see how that situation develops over the coming days...

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