Update on Short to Medium Range Tropical Activity in Gulf of Mexico...

Above are the latest visible and infrared satellite images, respectively, showing anarea of disturbed weather near the Yucatan peninsula (circled in yellow).  I first alluded to the fact that we should be monitoring this area for tropical development in a post on Tuesday.  So far so good, but some changes have developed with respect to how this system is expected to track later next week - and more specifically next weekend.


In the post on Tuesday I described how a rather strong cold front would move into the Gulf by mid week next week, and at the time the models were forecasting the tropical disturbance to remain just South of the associated middle and upper-level steering winds and eventually had the system tracking back Westward toward Mexico by next weekend.


The last several runs of the computer models now have the system being "picked up" by the stronger middle and upper level steering currents, and shift the system to the East toward Florida over time.  It is also interesting to note that they really don't depict the system retaining any tropical characteristics either, but rather show the cold front "absorbing" the system and spreading heavy rains East/Northeast along the frontal boundary.


First, lets take a look at how the GFS model handles the system, valid at 12 hour increments beginning 2pm EDT on Saturday, October 22nd (disturbance circled in yellow on each image):

As you can see, the model brings the system (or whats left of it after having been absorbed into the cold frontal boundary) Eastward into Florida by 2pm EDT on Monday, October 24th.

The other model cited in the post earlier this week, the ECMWF, has also shifted and is now forecasting the system to become completely absorbed by the cold front over the central Gulf of Mexico, with precipitation spreading Eastward into Florida as well.

At this point I wouldn't completely write-off the more Western track solutions that were shown earlier this week, as it still remains to be seen just how far South the influence of the middle and upper level steering winds will be felt.  The main point to be taken from both the early week and current model trends is that we need to keep a close eye on this system over the Yucatan and watch how it will be influenced by the larger steering currents later this coming week.

That's what keeps life - particularly involving the weather - interesting, I suppose...

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Tropical Trouble Brewing for SW Gulf of Mexico Next Week?

"As advertised" for the past few weeks, the tropical weather season in the Atlantic Basin is not ready to give up the fight just yet. For one thing, I believe the system that impacted Florida on Sunday evening will be classified as a Tropical Storm in the post-season review (I'm not the only one who feels that the National Hurricane Center dropped the ball on that one, but I digress - thanks for letting me get that off my chest).  

Anyway, back to the post at hand...the GFS and a few of the other models have become rather consistent over the past few runs in suggesting that a tropical system will develop near the Yucatan peninsula by this weekend.  Below is the latest GFS surface forecast image, valid 7am CDT on Saturday, 10-15-11 (system circled in purple toward the right center portion of the image):

The model generally keeps the system stationary or moving very slowly Westward, emerging out over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico by 7am CDT on Tuesday, October 18th:

The system is then forecast to be "held up" by a rather strong surface cold front, with the model keeping the system nearly stationary over the far southwest Gulf during the period Wednesday through Friday of next week.  By 1am CDT on Saturday, October 22nd, the model forecasts the system to have intensified over the southwestern Gulf (now shown in the yellow circle for better contrast):

...before moving onshore along the Mexican coast to the South of Brownsville by 1pm CDT on Sunday, October 23rd:

My typical disclaimer applies here:  we're still quite a ways out on the valid time of this forecast, so much could change...  With that said, the GFS model has had a pretty good run of predicting the general location of tropical systems in the medium to long range recently....

The ECMWF model, which also has a pretty solid track record of longer range tropical prediction, is also suggesting a disturbance over the far southwestern Gulf next week.  The image below is valid 7am CDT on Friday, October 21, with the potential system in question circled in yellow:

What all this means is that we need to keep an eye on the Yucatan / southwest Gulf region next week, and be prepared for the possibility of some type of landfalling system along the Mexican coast in about 10-12 days.  Based on the current forecast location of high pressure behind the cold front at that time late next week or next weekend, a landfall in Texas does not seem likely.  However, it is possible that some rain could penetrate that far Northward - depending on exactly where the center of the system makes landfall.  Stay tuned!!

If the above computer model forecasts verify, the NHC will surely get around to naming this one...

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Powerful Hurricane Jova Eyeing Mexican Coast (Pacific Side)...

Above is the latest visible satellite image of Hurricane Jova. You can see the eye of the hurricane, which was located about 195 miles Southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico as of 4pm CDT.  The infrared satellite images below show the structure around the eye even more clearly:

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph, and a minimum surface pressure of 28.20 inches of mercury was recently observed by a hurricane hunter aircraft.


Jova has turned toward the Northeast at 7 mph, and this general motion is forecast to continue overnight and early Tuesday.  During the day Tuesday, the system is forecast to turn more toward the North.  The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast brings the center of Jova onshore late Tuesday evening, very near the city of Manzanillo.  

With sustained winds of 125 mph, Jova is now a "Major" hurricane, and is forecast to impact land with maximum sustained winds near 135 mph, and with higher gusts.  The potential for damage will be widespread in the states of Colima and Jalisco beginning late Tuesday afternoon, and peaking on Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night.

If the center makes landfall to the Northwest of Manzanillo, strong winds will push a very dangerous storm surge up into the Bay with potentially devastating impacts to the area:

If the center were to make landfall closer to the city, or in the bay itself, the barrier island to the Southeast of town would be hammered with the bulk of the storm surge and high wave action:

While the 1st storm surge scenario would be worse than the 2nd, neither would be good for this region, which hasn't seen a major hurricane make a direct landfall since the "sneak" hurricane of 1959 (which killed 1,000 people). Maximum sustained winds with that system were near 160 mph.  More recently, Hurricane Winfred made landfall near this region in 1992, but as a relatively weak category 1 storm.

Manzanillo is the busiest port in all of Mexico, and is home to the Mexican Navy's Pacific fleet.  Over 140,000 people live there according to the 2005 census.  Media reports indicate that the Mexican government is taking this situation seriously, and has already begun to open shelters and recommend evacuations.

***Editorial note:  Updates on Jova will be made via new posts.  Please be sure to check the homepage of the blog for updates...

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Very Strong Winds Working Toward Florida Coast...

The above image was just taken from the Melbourne, FL doppler radar, in wind velocity mode. This is the mode in which the radar estimates the wind speed and direction motion toward and away from the radar site.

I have highlighted 2 patches on the imagery where the radar is estimating 70+ mph winds, about 35-45 miles off of the coast, to the East of Melbourne.  At this distance, the radar is measuring the wind at about 3,000 feet above ground  (or sea) level.  At the surface, the winds are probably on the order of about 60 mph.

The small red dot between the two areas of stronger winds indicate where the radar is suggesting the center of the low pressure is located, which is about 49 miles East/Southeast of Melbourne.

During the last hour, a wind gust of 47 mph was recorded at the Melbourne airport.  The data buoy located 20 miles East of Cape Canaveral continues to show steady winds of about 45 mph, with gusts of around 55 mph at this time:

Sustained winds are likely to increase along the east-central Florida coast into the 35-45 mph range, with gusts up to 60 mph possible this evening.  Take the time now to secure loose light weight outdoor objects to prevent them from blowing around in the increasing winds.

For more information on this storm system affecting Florida, please see my earlier post here.

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Just What Exactly Is Going on Near the Florida Coast???

An area of low pressure continues to develop just off of the East coast of Florida this afternoon. I've circled roughly the center of the system in yellow on the above visible satellite image.  The latest image from the Melbourne radar suggests that the center of the system is located about 95 miles to the East/Southeast of Cape Canaveral...

The system is drifting toward the West/Northwest at about 10-15 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.


A NOAA data buoy located about 20 miles East of Cape Canaveral (see below) has shown a steady decrease in pressure and a steady increase in both sustained winds and gusts over the past few hours:

As you can see on the above graph of the data from that buoy, sustained winds of 40 mph with gusts to near 52 mph have been observed over the past couple of hours, along with a minimum pressure of 29.84 inches of mercury, and steadily falling...


Thus far the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is treating this system as "extratropical" (meaning they feel that it lacks tropical characteristics).  None-the-less, they give the system a "30 percent chance of development" during the next 48 hours.


Regardless of what the NHC decides to do with this system, it is already causing quite a few problems along the east Florida coast, with very heavy rains and gale force wind gusts battering the region.  This trend will continue into tonight.


The GFS model forecasts the system to move from near its current position (model forecast valid 5pm EDT today):

...then moves the center of the storm Westward across the middle third of the state and then back out over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico off of the coast West of Tampa Bay by 8am EDT tomorrow morning:

The model then wobbles the system generally between there and the Florida panhandle for much of Monday and Tuesday before ejecting it toward the North/Northeast off of the Georgia/South Carolina coast by 8am EDT Wednesday morning (as a much weaker system by that time):

Regardless of whether the storm becomes tropical and/or "named", folks in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will have some wet and windy weather coming up (if not already underway as I pointed out in Florida earlier).

The latest HPC forecast calls for as much as 4 inches of rain across portions of southeast Georgia, northern Florida and portions of South Carolina for the period 8pm EDT today through 8pm EDT Tuesday:

In a post back on Tuesday the 4th I pointed out that the computer models were hinting at some type of development in this region for Tuesday the 11th.  The European model was indicating development in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS was forecasting a system off of the northern Florida coast.  It certainly looks like some sort of a hybrid concoction of those two model solutions from last week will indeed come to pass...

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Tropics Still Don't Want to Give Up In Long Range...

In a few posts over the last 15-20 days, I've remarked that the medium to long range models continue to hint at the potential for significant tropical development along the southeast U.S. Coast and/or Florida in October.  The latest run of the GFS model, valid 2am EDT on Tuesday, October 11th, is no exception:

As you can see by the black encircled area on the above image, a tropical system (likely a storm) is indicated just off of the Eastern coast of Florida at that time.

The ECMWF Model has the same general idea of a "near Florida" storm, but it depicts the system just off of the West coast of the state at 8am EDT on Tuesday, October 11, as shown in the image below:

That particular model tracks the system on up into the interior Southeast by Wednesday ,October 12:

...while the GFS solution, originally on the Eastern side of Florida, tracks the system inland near the Georgia/South Carolina border at the same time on Wednesday morning, October 12th:

Either solution would result in heavy rainfall from Georgia on up Northward into the Appalachians - an area that certainly does not need any additional heavy rainfall after the repeat tropical and other heavy rain events of the last 30 days.

It's still obviously way too early to tell if either of the above scenarios will come to pass, but the trends continue to indicate that we need to keep an eye on Florida and the southeast U.S. coast as the official hurricane and tropical weather season slowly begins to wind down over the next 30 days...

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Latest Tropical Disturbance Bears Watching...

An area of disturbed weather in the tropics (red circled area on wide view satellite image above) will need to be closely monitored as it progresses Westward over the next several days.  (For some geographic perspective, you can see the Southeast U.S. on the far left hand side of the image).  A close-up image of the area is shown on the color enhanced satellite image below:

Computer forecast model guidance is currently predicting that the system will generally move Westward over the next 5 days, as shown on the image below:

Its too early to tell whether this is the tropical system that has been alluded to by the longer range models as potentially impacting Florida or the Southeast U.S. during the last week of September, but we'll have to keep a close eye on it as it moves toward Puerto Rico by the end of this weekend.

As we near October 1 and beyond, it generally becomes harder for tropical systems to impact the Eastern U.S. as early fall cold fronts penetrate the region more frequently, which tends to pick up and carry the systems Eastward and back out to sea.

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Tropical Overview: Katia, Maria, and Nate...

As promised in my last post late yesterday afternoon, the tropics are heating up indeed! We now have 2 additional named storms since yesterday's update:  Nate in the Gulf of Mexico and Maria out in the Atlantic.  Meanwhile, a strong disturbance to the South of Katia also bears watching.  Speaking of Katia, she is still churning away out to the West/Southwest of Bermuda.  You can see each of these features on the satellite image above, and on the same annotated (with names, etc.) image below.

Lets start with the system closest to home (in the Bay of Campeche) which also happens to be the one most recently named:  Tropical Storm Nate.  At 4pm CDT, the center of Nate was located 125 miles West of Campeche, Mexico, and was drifting East/Southeast at 2 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were 45 mph, and the minimum barometric pressure was 29.65 inches of mercury.

Nate is nearly stationary over very warm water, and is therefore expected to strengthen over the next few days, possibly reaching hurricane strength as early as Thursday night.  While the intensity forecast for Nate seems pretty clear cut at this moment, the directional forecast is an entirely different matter.  Right now, about half of the computer models forecast Nate to eventually move Westward into Mexico by Sunday, while the other half forecast Nate to move North or Northeast into the middle Gulf Coast region by Sunday or Monday:

We have models that are "typically reliable" sitting in both camps at this moment, which lends further uncertainty as to the future track of the system.  At this time, I would strongly suggest residents along both the Mexican coast (which is obvious since the system is very near land at this time) as well as along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to monitor future information and updated forecasts concerning Nate.

We should have a better idea as to which steering mechanisms are most likely to impact Nate by this time tomorrow, which should lead to increased confidence in the future track of the system.  So, stay tuned for updates!

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria is gathering steam out over the Atlantic.  As of 5pm EDT, the center was located about 1200 miles East of the Leeward Islands, and moving Westward at a brisk 23 mph.

The current forecast calls for Maria to continue to move Westward and then West/Northwestward over time, possibly affecting Puerto Rico by Saturday afternoon (still forecast to be a Tropical Storm at that time):

In the longer term, the computer forecast models have varying opinions as to whether or not Maria could potentially affect the Southeast or Eastern U.S.  If she were to do so, it wouldn't likely be until the 2nd half of next week, so we have plenty of time to monitor her progress in the meantime.

Speaking of the Eastern U.S., it still appears as though Hurricane Katia will have no more impact than to stir up waves and rip currents along the central and Northern portions of the Eastern seaboard over the next few days, as she is still forecast to pass well offshore tomorrow through Saturday:

Stay tuned for updates and Nate and Maria, as both of these systems could eventually have an impact on some part of the U.S. coastline, depending on exactly how things pan out over the coming days...

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Tropical Update....Updated!

A couple of things have "developed" since my post earlier today regarding the tropics...


First, as forecast in my earlier post, the area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 14.  The latest satellite image and National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track (through Sunday) are shown below:

Second, another area of disturbed weather has formed in the Atlantic.  This one is located about 500 miles East of the Leeward Islands (white circled area on the satellite image below), and will need to be monitored for further organization over the next few days:

The tropics are "heating-up" indeed.  September looks like it's going to be a very active month.  So that you can put things into perspective, I've taken the same satellite image above and labelled each of the systems that are currently being monitored in the Gulf and/or Atlantic Basin:

For full details in Katia and the disturbance in the Gulf, please see my earlier post....




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Relief Headed for Texas...in One Form or Two?

After setting record high temperatures of 110+ in many areas (some of which were all time records, or tied for all time records) since Saturday, has the intense heat finally peaked in the Lone Star state this summer?  I think it may have (or it is in the process of, depending on exactly where you're located).

Today will be another scorcher, with high's of 100-105+ in many areas, and many records to be set again, but several changes are about to take place in the atmosphere that will lead to some temperature relief - and possibly some relief in the drought department, as well!

The above satellite image was taken just a few moments ago.  I have highlighted a tropical disturbance located roughly between Cuba and the Yucatan.  It is just drifting very slowly Westward at the moment, with not a lot in the way of organization taking place at the present time, however that is likely to change in a few days...

Below is a snapshot of the latest Global Forecasting System (GFS) computer model, valid 1am CDT this morning.  I have circled the aforementioned tropical disturbance in yellow on that image as well:

The same GFS computer model shows the disturbance becoming better organized out over the northwest Gulf of Mexico (yellow circled area again) in this image valid 7pm CDT this Saturday:

...and by 1am CDT Monday, Labor Day, morning, it is forecasting what looks like either a Tropical Depression, or perhaps even Tropical Storm "Lee" along the Texas or Louisiana coast: 

At the same time on the image above, I've noted a rather decent cold front that is forecast to be moving Southward into Texas.  A combination of cooler air behind the front, as well as increased cloud cover and possibly, dare I say it, rain from the tropical disturbance will lead to a dramatic cool down across much of the region by Labor Day.

Of course, we'll have to watch the progress of the tropical disturbance to see exactly what impact it may have, rain-wise or otherwise, on Texas and surrounding states, but at least we have something to look forward to, and the first decent looking chance of some widespread rain for at least part of the state in a long time.

I'm sure you also couldn't help but notice the large "blob" on the GFS model out over the Atlantic.  By that time we'll be dealing with Hurricane Katia, and likely a major hurricane at that.  The $64,000 question, of course, is whether she'll track more toward the West, the Northwest or turn out to sea as she approaches the U.S. East coast later next week (see notations on the image below, valid at the same time as the one above):

Stay tuned...we've got a lot to watch in the upcoming days!  If you have plans for this Labor Day Weekend (particularly the 2nd half of it) along the Texas or Louisiana coasts, keep a close eye on the latest updates...

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