Monday, September 19, 2011

Latest Tropical Disturbance Bears Watching...

An area of disturbed weather in the tropics (red circled area on wide view satellite image above) will need to be closely monitored as it progresses Westward over the next several days.  (For some geographic perspective, you can see the Southeast U.S. on the far left hand side of the image).  A close-up image of the area is shown on the color enhanced satellite image below:

Computer forecast model guidance is currently predicting that the system will generally move Westward over the next 5 days, as shown on the image below:

Its too early to tell whether this is the tropical system that has been alluded to by the longer range models as potentially impacting Florida or the Southeast U.S. during the last week of September, but we'll have to keep a close eye on it as it moves toward Puerto Rico by the end of this weekend.

As we near October 1 and beyond, it generally becomes harder for tropical systems to impact the Eastern U.S. as early fall cold fronts penetrate the region more frequently, which tends to pick up and carry the systems Eastward and back out to sea.

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