Sunday, September 18, 2011

Update on Rainfall & Severe Weather Potential for Today, Sunday, 9-18-11...

A weak frontal boundary will combine with copious amounts of low level moisture and several weak upper level weather disturbances to produce fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity by this afternoon across the central and southern Plains.  The image below is that of the GFS computer model, valid 4pm CDT this afternoon:

Some of the associated thunderstorm activity will be strong to severe.  The latest severe weather outlook from the SPC in Norman, OK is shown below:

Severe storms are forecast within the area outlined in yellow, from southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into northcentral and west-central Texas.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat from this activity by late this afternoon and into this evening.

Additional opportunities for much needed rainfall (particularly across the aforementioned portions of Texas) will be the biggest story today.  The image below shows the GFS computer model's estimate of rainfall potential (scale in inches on the left side of the image) from 1am CDT today to 1am CDT Monday:

...which matches up fairly well with the latest rainfall forecast from the HPC for today:

Keep in mind that these are rather "generalized" forecasts.  An isolated heavy thunderstorm could produce one half to one inch of rain in some areas outside of the zone where that type of rainfall is currently being forecast (by either the GFS model or the humans at the HPC).  If you are fortunate enough to find yourself underneath one of those storms this afternoon or evening, you're in for some good rainfall!

Overall, the rainfall trends outlined in my more detailed post yesterday are playing out just as expected.  Please refer back to that post for more information on rainfall potential for the remainder of this week...

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