Thursday, September 8, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate Swirling Over the Southwest Gulf...

Tropical Storm Nate has moved very little, if any, since yesterday evening's post. This is not really a surprise, as we expected him to swirl about over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and gather strength for a few days before making a move.

The $64,000 question (as alluded to in yesterday's post) is:  what type of move is he going to make?

The models have not come to any better agreement overnight, with some still bringing the system Westward into Mexico and others North/Northeastward into the northern Gulf Coast early next week:

Both the GFS and the European models have been quite reliable so far this season in the tropics, but with respect to Nate, they are currently offering 2 completely different solutions.

First, the image below is from the GFS model, valid at 7am CDT Tuesday, 9-13-11.  As you can see, this particular model is showing Nate making landfall along the Louisiana/Mississippi coasts at that time:

...meanwhile, the ECMWF model, valid 7pm CDT on Monday, 8-12-11, is showing a landfalling Nate along the Mexican coast:

Right now, it's hard to say which solution is most likely to be correct.  There are several features in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere that have yet to come together that will have a strong influence on the eventual track of the system.  We should have a better idea later today or early Friday as to how those features are coming together, which should lead to greater confidence in one of the forecast solutions.

Right now, the "official" National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast is trending more toward the ECMWF solution, and taking Nate toward a Mexican landfall early next week: 

As I mentioned just before, we'll have a much better idea in about 24 hours as to which track scenario is more likely to come about...

Either way, and quite unfortunately, I'm still not seeing much of a chance that any rains will impact Texas as a result of the movement of Nate.  Steering winds in the middle and upper atmosphere are likely to carry him either well to the South or well to the East of Texas the way it appears right now.  Even if Nate were to take the more Westerly track into Mexico, depending on how far out the rainbands develop from the center, it is possible that the far Southern tip of Texas could receive a glancing blow of some rain, but not the widespread, significant rains that would be more likely further to the South.

If you enjoy reading 'The Original Weather Blog', please be sure to "like" our facebook page!

No comments: