Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Frost/Freeze Likely Tonight and Wednesday Night Northern Plains...

As we've been posting for the past several days now, a widespread frost and/or freeze is likely beginning tonight and again Wednesday night across portions of the northern Plains.  In some areas, this will be taking place about a week to 10 days earlier than normal....

At late afternoon today, the leading edge of much cooler air was moving Southeastward into the Dakotas, northwest Minnesota and northeastern Montana, as noted by the solid blue line on the surface weather map below (click for larger, less blurry - don't know why it does that on the preview pane - image):

Strong, gusty Northwest winds will usher much colder temperatures into the region overnight, with a frost and/or light freeze possible across portions of the region by dawn on Wednesday (mainly along and North of the blue line on the image below):

By Thursday morning, the threat area will have expanded as the cold air settles further Southward, and as winds become calm across much of the region (once again, primary threat area to the North of the blue line):

While this frost/freeze event is right on schedule (compared to "normal") for many parts of this region, some areas in northwestern Iowa and western Wisconsin don't typically see the first frost or freeze until closer to the September 25th-October 1st time frame.

The coldest overnight air will shift Eastward into the Great Lakes region by Friday morning, however winds flowing off of the warmer lakes are likely to prevent a widespread freeze across this region.

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