Friday, September 2, 2011

System In Gulf Classified as Tropical Depression 13...

The system we've been talking about in the Gulf this week was classified as the 13th Tropical Depression of the Atlantic season yesterday evening.  The above satellite image shows the system currently centered about 250 miles Southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, and remaining nearly stationary.  I wouldn't be too concerned about the exact location of the center, nor about the movement in the near term (24-36 hours), as there is likely to be quite a bit of fluctuation in both.

The main story with this system in the short term will be extremely heavy rainfall along adjacent portions of the Gulf Coast (unfortunately not Texas at this time), as shown on the latest rainfall forecast images below.  The first image is valid today and tonight, and the second for the 3 day period today through Sunday:

The "official" NHC forecast track is below and is generally a consensus of the major models at this time, however I wouldn't fixate on the exact track, especially in the short term, as there is still quite a bit of uncertainty:

I will have a more detailed post on this system by midday...

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