Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Tropics Still Don't Want to Give Up In Long Range...

In a few posts over the last 15-20 days, I've remarked that the medium to long range models continue to hint at the potential for significant tropical development along the southeast U.S. Coast and/or Florida in October.  The latest run of the GFS model, valid 2am EDT on Tuesday, October 11th, is no exception:

As you can see by the black encircled area on the above image, a tropical system (likely a storm) is indicated just off of the Eastern coast of Florida at that time.

The ECMWF Model has the same general idea of a "near Florida" storm, but it depicts the system just off of the West coast of the state at 8am EDT on Tuesday, October 11, as shown in the image below:

That particular model tracks the system on up into the interior Southeast by Wednesday ,October 12:

...while the GFS solution, originally on the Eastern side of Florida, tracks the system inland near the Georgia/South Carolina border at the same time on Wednesday morning, October 12th:

Either solution would result in heavy rainfall from Georgia on up Northward into the Appalachians - an area that certainly does not need any additional heavy rainfall after the repeat tropical and other heavy rain events of the last 30 days.

It's still obviously way too early to tell if either of the above scenarios will come to pass, but the trends continue to indicate that we need to keep an eye on Florida and the southeast U.S. coast as the official hurricane and tropical weather season slowly begins to wind down over the next 30 days...

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