Regardless of what exactly happens with the tropical system attempting to organize near the Yucatan Peninsula (latest visible satellite image shown above), the computer forecast models are increasingly hinting at a wet time to be had not only for Florida, but for the Northeast as well. In addition, very windy conditions are likely along the east-central and northeast U.S. coastline as the system combines with a strong upper-level weather disturbance and surface cold front by mid-week.
The series of images below shows the GFS computer model's interpretation as to what will happen to the system beginning 8pm EDT Tuesday, October 18th, through 8pm EDT Wednesday, October 19th:
As you can see, we begin late Tuesday afternoon with a relatively weak (wind-wise) system traversing Florida (while dumping copious amounts of heavy rain). By Tuesday night and early Wednesday, the system is forecast to strengthen as it becomes absorbed by a strong surface cold front and upper level trough, with surface winds forecast to increase into the 80+ mph range just offshore of the Carolina coastline by dawn on Wednesday:
Even if the system is initially classified as tropical when impacting Florida on Tuesday, by this time Wednesday it would likely have been re-classified as "extratropical" as it will have become absorbed by the larger surface through upper level storm system impacting the Eastern U.S.
The fierce storm is then forecast to spread 80+ mph winds just offshore of Cape Cod by 8pm EDT on Wednesday evening:
...before racing off into southeastern Canada by dawn on Thursday:
Note the strong Northwesterly winds (upwards of 50 mph) that the model is forecasting to come off of Lake Erie into northern Ohio and northwestern New York state on Thursday morning! It may even be cold enough in this region for precipitation to fall as some wind-whipped snow flakes (although significant accumulation does not appear likely at this time) on Thursday morning...
Stay tuned for updates. First order of business will be to determine whether or not this system will cause any problems for Florida, other than the heavy rain that we already know will take place late Monday through Wednesday...
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