Sunday, October 23, 2011

Tropical Depression 18 Forms off Coast of Honduras...

As indicated in my last post, the hurricane hunter aircraft found a closed circulation in what was formerly Invest 96, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has now dubbed the system "Tropical Depression 18".

Right now the NHC is sticking with the idea that the system will move inland into Mexico later this week:

But the latest run of the HWRF model has a different idea in mind:

Now that we have a fresh download of hurricane hunter data to be ingested by the models tonight (and more to come with probably twice daily flights for the next few days), we should have a much better idea whats going to happen with this system in a few days.

As I pointed out in my weekly outlook on Saturday, it's too early for folks in Florida to write this one off, so please keep an eye on the progress of this system during the week...

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