Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Update on Hurricane Jova...

Above is the latest visible satellite image of Hurricane Jova, and the corresponding infrared satellite image is shown below. At 10am CDT, the center of Jova was located about 120 miles Southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and was moving toward the North/Northeast at 5 mph.

Jova turned more toward the North/Northeast a bit earlier than expected today, which is good news for the communities of Manzanillo and those immediately around it.  Right now, it appears that the center of Jova will make landfall somewhere along the coast near Careyes and Emiliano Zapata later this evening:

As we always point out, however, the impacts of the storm will be felt well out from the center.  As shown on the image below, Manzanillo is approximately 60 miles East/Southeast of where the center is forecast to make landfall:

This will put Manzanillo within the zone of Tropical Storm force winds, as well as higher wave action and some "pile up" of water into the Bay to the West of the City this evening and early tonight.  The water pile up and storm surge will be the most severe along the coast from near Estrcho and Barra de Navidad on Northwestward along the coast toward the point where the center is forecast to come ashore.  In particular, the bays near Melaque and La Manzanilla can expect high water levels and adjacent coastal flooding later today.

Maximum sustained winds are curently around 115 mph, with gusts to near 140 mph.  The minimum central pressure at 10am CDT was reported as 28.44 inches of mercury.  Jova remains over warmer coastal waters at this time, and some minor fluctuations in strength may take place prior to landfall. 

Widespread, heavy rainfall of 6-12 inches with locally higher amounts can be expected along with Jova, especially in the states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.  Jova is expected to fall apart fairly rapidly as it encounters the ruggest mountainous terrain which is located immediately inland of the coastal region, but locally heavy rains will be dumped on the Western and Southern sides of these mountainous areas as well, which could lead to landslides in some areas.

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