Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Texas/Southwest Rainmaker Getting Underway...

The first in a series of vigorous middle and upper-level weather disturbances is currently lifting East/Northeast across the Desert Southwest this evening, as shown by the latest water vapor satellite image above.  The "L" shows the center of the initial disturbance, while the red arrows show stronger middle and upper-level winds and associated upward lift in the atmosphere flowing around the base and Eastern side of the system.

This lead disturbance is forecast to produce scattered precipitation across adjacent portions of the Southern and central Rockies and western High Plains as it lifts toward the East/Northeast during the next 24-36 hours:

The main show will come later in the week, as the main body of low pressure, currently moving on to the Pacific Northwest coast...

...dives Southeastward into the Rockies and Western High Plains, as shown by the latest GFS model forecast image valid 7am CDT on Friday, 10-7-11:

This will result in widespread rainfall, some locally heavy, across the central and southern High Plains from Nebraska into western Kansas, eastern Colorado and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region during the period Friday through Saturday night:

A return flow of moisture ahead of the storm system from the Gulf of Mexico across central and South Texas will also result in scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across this region over the weekend as well.  Rainfall amounts will generally average 0.25-0.50 inch, with some locally heavier amounts possible.

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