Thursday, October 27, 2011

Rina Having A Hard Time with Yucatan / Dry Air...

Above are the latest visible and infrared satellite images, respectively, of Tropical Storm Rina. As you can see, the system is being torn apart quite a bit by the Yucatan Peninsula.  Dry air is also being sucked into the Western and Northern sides of the system, which is also causing weakening...

There is very little precipitation indicated even near the center of the storm near Cancun at this time:

Both the HWRF and GFDL hurricane forecast models call for the system to wobble around the Yucatan for the next several days:

Based on recent trends, it does not appear as though Rina will manage to muster enough energy to track Eastward or Northeastward toward Cuba or Florida at this time.  If the rains are able to regenerate, a significant flooding and/or mudslide problem may develop along the coast of the Yucatan peninsula into the weekend.

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