The above surface map was valid at 3:23pm CDT. I drew in the rough location of the surface cold front (blue) that is moving South/Southeastward through the central and into the southern Plains at the moment. Note the strong trough or dryline (red dashed line) across West Texas. Winds are gusting as high as 50 mph across extreme eastern New Mexico and West Texas behind this boundary at the moment.
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop along a part of the front later this evening, mainly across the southeastern half of Oklahoma and part of northwest and northcentral Texas. This threat is shown by the yellow shaded area on the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC in Norman, OK on the image below:
Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be greatest threats with any thunderstorm activity that forms. The most likely time for development appears to be during the 7pm-10pm range this evening as the front approaches from the Northwest along with a strong upper-level weather disturbance.
The front will pick up the pace overnight and blast Southward as far as the Gulf Coast by dawn tomorrow. Below is the latest GFS computer model forecast, valid at 7am CDT Tuesday:
The green shaded coloration extending from Oklahoma, Southward into Texas indicates where the model is forecasting 40-50 mph wind gusts out of the North to Northwest overnight tonight and into Tuesday morning. It would probably be a good idea to secure loose outdoor objects before heading off to bed tonight, otherwise you might find them a few blocks to your South tomorrow morning.
Unfortunately, other than the risk of strong to severe storms across part of north Texas this evening, very little to no rain will be associated with the passage of the front across the remainder of Texas.
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