Friday, October 21, 2011

NOAA's Winter Outlook Is In - Agrees with Theory that La Nina Will Dominate...

NOAA's National Weather Service issued their outlook for winter 2011-2012 yesterday, and it supports the theory that La Nina will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the U.S. this fall and winter.

Their outlook is eerily similar to mine (see maps at the bottom of the La Nina post that was linked in the 1st paragraph), with some variation in the percent likelihood of the various elements being forecast.  I am a bit perplexed by their forecasting a "nose" of drier than normal conditions from Oklahoma into Kansas.  That part of the forecast is not currently supported by the latest trends, and doesn't fit with the expected La Nina anomalies.

Unfortunately, they do concur with me in that the drought across Texas and adjacent areas will only worsen through at least the fall and winter season.

All in all, I see no reason to adjust my earlier forecast at this time, based on the trends we've witnessed over the last 15-30 days.  The real question in my mind at this point is how strong will La Nina ultimately become this winter, and how far will that influence stretch into 2012 (i.e., beyond winter)?  It's still too early to tell at this point...but we'll keep watching it for you...

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Anonymous said...

When will the forcast for what La Nina will do in the Spring and Summer of 2012 be available?

How long does a La Nina normally last?

Rob In Texas said...

Anonymous, Thanks for the question/comment.

La Nina can last well into the summer months. This year was a good (or bad, depending on how you look at it) example of that.

We will likely have an idea as to how we're trending for the Spring by December.

So far I'm not hopeful that drought striken Texas will see any relief through at least Spring 2012.

Anonymous said...

Thank you.

Is it true that the second year of the La Nina is usually not as severe as the first year?