Sunday, October 23, 2011

Invest 96 Trying to Get Organized Southeast of Yucatan...

Invest 96 is becoming better organized this morning off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, as shown on the latest visible and infrared satellite images above and below, respectively:

According to the reconnaissance "plan of the day" issued yesterday, a hurricane hunter flight was scheduled to investigate the system at 2pm CDT today, and I don't see where it has been cancelled, so that should reveal some additional information on the system later this afternoon.

The models are still in good agreement during the short range, with the majority forecasting the system to move toward the Northwest toward the Yucatan peninsula by Wednesday or Thursday:

Beyond that, the guidance diverges.  About half of the models take the system Westward into Mexico, while the others show the system being picked-up by a surface cold front and mid-level trough of low pressure and being lifted Eastward toward Cuba, but remaining South of Florida.

If we can get a series of solid aircraft observations underway on the system, that will fuel the models with more valuable data and will likely give us a much better idea as to what will ultimately take place over the next few days.

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