Friday, August 12, 2011

Severe Weather Update - Oklahoma - How Did the Models Do?

In my last post, I pointed out that the HRRR Model was forecasting severe thunderstorms to enter the Oklahoma City area at 10pm, and the Tulsa area by 11pm.  Well, as you can see by the latest Tulsa radar image above, thunderstorms are indeed entering the Northwest part of Oklahoma City at this time.  The projection of thunderstorms in Tulsa by 11pm also appears to be right on good job, HRRR!  I should point out that the model projection that I showed in that post was generated by the computer model at 6pm, well before this activity had become better organized.  That fact should lend further credit to the model's performance in this event.

That portion of the complex that is entering Oklahoma City is capable of producing 50-60 mph wind gusts this hour.  The Northern portion of the complex, which will affect Tulsa, is not as strong, with radar estimated wind gusts of only 30-40 mph indicated at this time.

If anyone in Tulsa or OKC would care to bottle up some of the rain that is on the way (AGAIN!!!!) and mail it to me here in Texas, please send me an e-mail.  I'll be glad to give you my mailing address.  We could use about 25 inches, if that's convenient for you...

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