Severe Thunderstorm Watch Southeast Oklahoma / Northwest Arkansas Until Midnight...

The above Severe Thunderstorm Watch was just issued for southeast and east-central Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas, and is valid until 12 Midnight CDT.  This severe thunderstorm watch includes the cities of Fayetteville, Ft. Smith, Muskogee and McAlester.

Large hail, damaging wind gusts and very heavy rainfall can be expected in association with severe storms in this area.  An isolated tornado also cannot be completely ruled out.

If you live in the severe weather threat area, remain alert this afternoon and evening.  Listen to local media or another trusted source for the latest updates and possible warnings.  Make sure to identify your sheltering location ahead of time, that way you can get there quickly if a warning is issued for your area.

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Severe Weather Update for Oklahoma...

There are two main threats across central and eastern Oklahoma for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. The first will be that of flash flooding, from roughly the Oklahoma City Metro area on up through the Tulsa Metro area (click image below to enlarge/clarify)...

Rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches have already been observed across portions of this area, and an additional 3-5 inches of rain (with locally heavier amounts) are possible through this evening.

Further South, a risk of both severe storms and flash flooding continues for much of southeast and east-central Oklahoma, where the atmosphere is still unstable ahead of the approaching weather disturbance from the West.  Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible in this region.

If you live in the flash flood threat area, remember to never drive into a water covered roadway.  Even just a few inches of water can cause you to lose control of your vehicle and/or be swept away.

If you live in the severe weather threat area, remain alert this afternoon and evening.  Listen to local media or another trusted source for the latest updates and possible warnings.

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Storm North of Calumet Doesn't Want to Give Up Just Yet...

The severe storm that we've been tracking since it produced tornadoes over southwest Oklahoma late this afternoon continues to try and produce rotation at this time.  The latest radar image is below, which shows the storm located just North of Calumet.   The white circled area on the right half of the image shows where a low level circulation is forming once again, about 5 miles North of Calumet:

This is still a potentially dangerous storm capable of producing a tornado.  Folks from Okarche and up through Kingfisher and points to the West of there should closely monitor this storm as it approaches your area.  Large hail and damaging winds are also possible.

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Severe Weather Update - Oklahoma & Northwest Texas...

Below are some of the images of the tornado that took place near Snyder, OK at about 3:30 this afternoon, via KWTV Channel 9 in Oklahoma City:

The following video of a tornado produced by the same storm near the Wichita mountains in southwest Oklahoma was just posted to YouTube:

There are numerous reports of damage in association with this tornado, as well as others that were produced by the same storm as it tracked North/Northeast toward the Binger area.  Fortunately, there are no reports of fatalities at this time.

Currently, radar is showing strong to severe thunderstorm activity across a broad swath of western and northcentral Oklahoma:

This activity is generally moving toward the North/Northeast at 35 mph, and will gradually move and/or develop Eastward later this evening and tonight as a strong upper-level weather disturbance moves across the region from the West and Southwest.

Large hail and damaging winds are likely with stronger storms this evening and tonight, and isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out.

A Tornado Watch continues until 9pm CST for much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, and until 1am CST for portions of extreme northcentral Oklahoma and southeast Kansas:

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Update: Storm Near Binger / Lookeba Weakening...

The storm we've been tracking, which is now North of Binger and near Lookeba, is weakening. Radar shows that the storm is "gusting out", as indicated by the white arrows on the right half of the above radar image.  This means that the tornadic threat has ended for the time being.  We will continue to monitor this storm for signs of reorganization.  Gusty winds and hail are still likely with this storm as it moves toward Calumet.

The image below shows one of several tornadoes that were produced by this storm earlier this afternoon...this one near the Wichita Mountains in southwest Oklahoma.  Numerous reports of damage have been reported between there and Binger:

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Update on Tornadic Storm SW of OKC - Approaching Albert and Binger

The above image was just taken by the KWTV Channel 9 helicopter in OKC. You can see the large circulation associated with a tornado as pointed out between the red arrows.

This storm is located between Ft. Cobb and Albert, moving toward Albert.  Folks in Albert and Binger need to take immediate tornado precautions.  This appears to be a large tornado with circulation extending all the way to the ground (even though you may not be able to see the condensation funnel all the way down).

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Update on Tornadic Storm SW of OKC - Approaching Ft. Cobb...

The tornadic storm that I posted on a short while ago continues toward the North/Northeast to Northeast at 35 mph.  Damage has been reported between Alden and Ft. Cobb.  

Based on radar signatures (see latest image above), the circulation will pass immediately West of Ft. Cobb very shortly.  If you live on the West side of Ft. Cobb or points West halfway to Carnegie, seek immediate shelter from this dangerous storm.

Folks in Albert and Binger need to keep a close eye on the progress of this storm.  Based on its present track, the storm will remain to the West of the immediate OKC Metro area, but folks in El Reno and Calumet should keep an eye on the progress of this storm as well...

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Tornadic Storm SW of OKC

The above image (click to enlarge) was just taken from the Frederick, OK doppler radar. The left half of the image is the reflectivity mode of the radar (i.e., rain, hail, etc.) and the right half is the wind velocity mode (which shows the wind speed and direction within the storm with respect to the location of the radar site).

The radar site is located just off of the bottom left hand corner of each side of the image.  Remember, when looking at the wind velocity image, the red shows wind blowing away from the radar, and the green shows wind blowing toward the radar.  Keeping this in mind, I have circled in yellow the tornado signature on the radar, which is directly East of Cooperton, between there and Apache.  

The storm is moving toward the Northeast at 35 mph.  If this track continues, people in Alden and rural areas between Alden and Fort Cobb will be affected by this storm.

Folks to the immediate West of the Oklahoma City Metro area, including the El Reno area, should keep a close eye on the track of this storm.

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Severe Weather Update - Tulsa Metro Area; Threat Shifting to Heavy Rainfall

The threat of damaging winds has shifted Southeast of the immediate Tulsa area as of this post. Additional thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are located West of the city and are moving Eastward, which will result in additional periods of locally heavy rainfall for the next couple of hours.

Radar estimates indicate that 1.0-1.5 inches of rain has fallen with the present thunderstorm activity in the Tulsa area so far.  Additional localized rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible with heavier storms that move in from the West later this evening and early tonight.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also continue a threat as the activity moves through the region for the next couple of hours.

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Severe Weather Update - Tulsa Metro Area

Strong, possibly damaging wind gusts of up to 75 mph are spreading Southeast at 40 mph into the far Western and Northwestern portions of the Tulsa Metro area at this time.  The strong winds will spread across the remainder of the city during the next 15-30 minutes.

Brief tornado spin-ups sometimes take place along the leading edge of the gust front in this type of situation, however it appears to me that the greatest threat from this line of storms will be strong, potentially damaging wind gusts.

Be sure to stay indoors and away from windows as this line of storms moves across the area.

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Severe Weather Update - Tulsa Metro Area

The above image was just taken from the Tulsa radar, in reflectivity (rain, hail, etc.) mode. You can see a "fine line" moving out ahead of the main thunderstorm line, as noted by the white arrows.  This line signifies strong, damaging winds flowing out ahead of the main thunderstorm line.

This line is moving Southeast at 35-40 mph, and on its present pace will reach the Tulsa area by 9 o'clock this evening.  Gusty outflow winds could reach the city as early as 8:45 pm.

The image below is the same radar in wind speed and direction (velocity) mode.  The tip of the white arrow on this image shows where the radar is currently estimating a peak wind gust of 78 mph.  

Residents of the greater Tulsa area should prepare now for strong, possibly damaging wind gusts.  Move loose, light weight outdoor objects indoors or otherwise secure them to prevent them from becoming projectiles.  Stay away from windows as this line of storms approaches.  

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Line of Severe Storms Moving Toward Tulsa Area...

The above image was just taken from the Tulsa area radar. You can see a line of severe storms about 55 miles Northwest of Tulsa. This line is moving East/Southeast at 30-35 mph. On this pace, the line would reach the Tulsa Metro area around 9pm CDT.

In the last 15 minutes, a wind gust of 68 mph was recorded at the Ponca City airport.

If you live along or ahead of this line of storms, prepare for strong, possibly damaging wind gusts of 65-70 mph, dangerous lightning and hail up to 1 inch diameter.

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Strong Rotation West of Wakita in far Northcentral Oklahoma

A Tornado Warning has been issued on the above storm located to the West of Wakita, Oklahoma. The rotating portion of the storm (indicated by the hook shaped echo on the left half of the above radar image) is currently approaching the Alfalfa/Grant county lines, moving East at about 15 mph.  

Storm chaser Ben Holcomb captured this image of a rotating wall cloud looking West from Grant county a few moments ago (via twitter):

Very large hail of golfball to tennis ball size is also possible with this storm.  On its present track, the rotation will pass immediately North of Sand Creek, and is moving generally toward the Wakita area at this time.

If you live in the path of this storm, please seek immediate shelter.

***Update 5:50 PM CDT:

Ben Holcomb just tweeted the following:

The storm is moving more toward the East/Southeast now.  Clyde, Medford and Jefferson are in the path of the most dangerous part of this storm as it moves East/Southeast at 15-20 mph.

***Update to add video 8:45 am 9/18/11:

The following video was posted on YouTube last night and corresponds quite well with Ben's tornado report from yesterday evening:

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T-Storms Initiating NW Oklahoma/SW Kansas - Tornado Watch Issued

As per the latest Dodge City area radar image above, thunderstorms are developing to the West of Woodward, just about right on time.


The SPC has just issued a Tornado Watch for the region, valid until 11pm CDT.

Another watch may be needed further South as thunderstorms appear to be trying to form over southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas as well:

***Update 4pm CDT:

The SPC has just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to the South of the above Tornado Watch, valid until 11pm CDT:

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Severe Weather Update - Oklahoma - How Did the Models Do?

In my last post, I pointed out that the HRRR Model was forecasting severe thunderstorms to enter the Oklahoma City area at 10pm, and the Tulsa area by 11pm.  Well, as you can see by the latest Tulsa radar image above, thunderstorms are indeed entering the Northwest part of Oklahoma City at this time.  The projection of thunderstorms in Tulsa by 11pm also appears to be right on track....so good job, HRRR!  I should point out that the model projection that I showed in that post was generated by the computer model at 6pm, well before this activity had become better organized.  That fact should lend further credit to the model's performance in this event.

That portion of the complex that is entering Oklahoma City is capable of producing 50-60 mph wind gusts this hour.  The Northern portion of the complex, which will affect Tulsa, is not as strong, with radar estimated wind gusts of only 30-40 mph indicated at this time.

If anyone in Tulsa or OKC would care to bottle up some of the rain that is on the way (AGAIN!!!!) and mail it to me here in Texas, please send me an e-mail.  I'll be glad to give you my mailing address.  We could use about 25 inches, if that's convenient for you...

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Severe Storm Complex Organizing, Setting Sights on OKC, Tulsa...

As expected earlier today, severe thunderstorms are congealing into a complex and beginning to accelerate toward the East/Southeast along the Kansas/Oklahoma border this hour.  The above image was just taken from the Tulsa radar site.  Widespread, damaging winds of 55-65 mph with some gusts to 75 mph have been reported in southern Kansas and extreme northcentral Oklahoma with this activity this evening.  A few isolated gusts of 80-90 mph took place in southwest Kansas during the initial phase of development a couple of hours ago.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) computer model currently forecasts this complex to reach the Oklahoma City area around 10pm and the Tulsa area around 11pm this evening:

It is possible that the arrival times will be earlier if this system begins to produce widespread, very strong winds in earnest during the next hour or so.  If that happens, it will likely accelerate more to the Southeast over time.

If you live along or ahead of this complex of storms, make preparations for possible severe weather now.  Remove light weight, loose objects from outdoors and secure them.  Have extra batteries and flashlights on hand in case you lose power later this evening.  Listen to a NOAA Weather Radio with battery back-up for later statements and possible warnings.

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Another Round of Storms for the Sooner State

A large complex of rain and thunderstorms is moving into the Oklahoma City Metro area at this time. The above picture was taken by Rick Smith of the NWS in Norman on top of the National Weather Center building on the OU Campus a few minutes ago.  You can see the long, bowing "shelf cloud" out ahead of the activity, which signifies the strong, gusty winds blowing out of the thunderstorm complex.

Here is another view of the shelf cloud taken by storm chaser Chris Sanner in Norman at about the same time:

Radar shows the large area of beneficial rain (albeit with some gusty winds initially) will continue to overspread the region during the morning hours:

The Tulsa area will get it on the Northeast quadrant of the activity as well, it appears....

We just need to figure out how to get this rain into Texas!  

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