This......
And this...
Don't really equate to this....
Do they? Well, apparently so. So far this evening, it appears that South Tulsa and adjacent communities dodged a major bullet. A strong supercell developed over Creek county early in the evening and tracked Northeast, then making the classic severe "right turn" more toward the East toward South Tulsa with time. Circulation signatures were persistent and strong, with the strongest SW of Kellyville as shown here:
But with all of this radar "drama", not one ground report of a tornado was received. Not even a wind damage report. Not even a large hail report! Could a tornado have touched-down and gone unnoticed, wrapped in a shroud of rain and unreported large hail? Sure, absolutely. But with storms passing through a heavily populated area and with massive "chaser convergence" taking place throughout, I am stunned at the lack of reports thus far.
I anxiously await the morning...when perhaps the light of day may shed light on some otherwise unreported events. But for now, I have to chalk this storm up as "storm - 1; meteorologists - 0" on predictability.
Why do storms rotate strongly but never produce a ground-level circulation? In this case, we should be thankful that is what happened - and believe me, I am. I never like to see tornadoes strike populated areas. In the middle of a wheat field in western Oklahoma or Kansas is just fine with me. But why this particular storm didn't produce a "significant tornado", regardless of location, is another reason that we as meteorologists must continue to gather as much data as possible (like the Vortex 2 team is currently doing) in order to increase our understanding and make better forecasts and warnings in the future.
Tulsa, count your blessings tonight - but don't let your guard down. The meteorologists didn't "cry wolf"; this storm was a monster - it just decided not to wreak havoc on your community, and thank goodness for that!
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