Texas Soaker To Get Underway Tomorrow...

Moisture from former Hurricane Miriam (yellow arrows) will combine with lift from an upper level storm system (red circled area) to produce a widespread rain event across the Lone Star State on Friday and Saturday.

The heaviest rains will fall on Friday Night and Saturday, with a swath of widespread 3-6 inch rainfall forecast from the Big Bend, Eastward across the Edwards Plateau, including the Austin-San Antonio corridor along I-35:

Present indications suggest that the heaviest rainfall will take place along the I-35 corridor (including the Austin-San Antonio areas) from 10am through 6pm on Saturday.  This could lead to low land and small stream flooding problems, particularly in urban and other poor drainage areas.  A "cold" front will sweep across the region late Saturday, bringing the heavier precipitation to an end from Northwest to Southeast across the region.

This is good news in general, as much of the heavier rains will fall across an area that continues to experience moderate to severe drought, as indiciated by the latest data that was released today:

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One of Our "Eyes in the Sky" Goes Blind...

Above is a recent water vapor satellite image of the lower 48 United States.  I'm sure your attention is immediately drawn to the right hand side of the image which is "blank" insofar as cloud cover (or moisture in the clouds) is concerned.  That's not a simple software glitch, as one of the GOES Weather Satellites used to produce the full image, GOES-13 or "GOES East" is out of service.

The problem began a few days ago when images from the GOES East satellite started to become "noisy", as shown in the comparison below:

"Noisy" GOES East Image from 9-21-12

What the Image Should Look Like

The problem worsened on Sunday night, and the unit was taken completely out of service early yesterday.  

The fact that the satellite orbits the earth at an altitude of 22,300 miles above the surface makes fixing it very difficult, to say the least.  Engineers on the ground are attempting to "remotely" fix the problem, but if they can't, then the satellite will likely be taken out of service permanently.

In the meantime, NOAA has repositioned a "standby" satellite, GOES 14, and it is now generating the images that GOES East used to be responsible for.  Many satellite imagery display systems, such as the one shown in the image at the top of the post, will have to be reprogrammed in order to display the images from the "new" satellite.  

Thankfully, there were no significant tropical systems taking place in the Atlantic during the outage, or our observational abilities would have obviously been severely hampered.

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Autumnal Equinox (Fall) Begins at 9:49 AM CDT Today...

Fall will be officially ushered in at 9:49 a.m. central time this morning, as the Autumnal Equinox takes place in the planetary realm.

As the new season begins, the Earth's axis will be tilted neither away from the sun nor towards it, allowing the sun's rays to shine directly overhead at the equator before moving into the Southern Hemisphere:

Back home in the Northern Hemisphere, the days will get shorter and the nights longer from here on out, leading up to the shortest day of the year on Friday, December 21 (the Winter Solstice).

To view the sunrise/sunset and/or twilight tables for your area, we suggest this link at the U.S. Naval Observatory's site.  The tables aren't fully of pretty looking graphics or anything like that, but they are very accurate and for specific locations.

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23rd Anniversary of Hurricane Hugo...

It's hard to believe that 23 years have passed since Hurricane Hugo battered the southeastern U.S.  Shortly after Midnight on September 22, 1989, the center of the category 4 hurricane made landfall on Isle of Palms in South Carolina.

At the time, Hugo was the strongest tropical cyclone to strike the U.S. in over 20 years.  Total damage from the storm was estimated at $7 billion (in 1989 dollars), and 49 people lost their lives (26 in the U.S., Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands).

Charleston, SC radar image at landfall

Charleston, SC was particularly hard hit.  Most buildings in downtown Charleston sustained significant damage, and widespread destruction took place on Sullivan's Island and the Isle of Palms:

Folly Beach, SC

Isle of Palms, SC

Ben Sawyer Bridge - Sullivan's Island, SC

Unknown location - Near Charleston, SC

Charleston, SC

Maximum winds of 137 mph were recorded at Charleston Naval Air Station, 108 mph at Downtown Charleston and 98 mph at the Charleston airport.  Winds of 100+ mph were widespread along the coast:

The system also produced widespread, locally heavy rainfall from the Carolinas all the way up into portions of New England.  Edisto Island, SC recorded 10.28 inches of rain for the "official" maximum:

As is the case with most major hurricanes, and particularly those that cause significant damage, injuries and fatalities, the National Hurricane Center retired the name "Hugo" and it will never be used again.

Complete track of Hugo

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Cooler Weather Settling In Behind Tuesday's Storms...

The cold front that caused widespread heavy rain and severe weather along the Eastern seaboard yesterday ushered in a chilly morning this morning. Readings dipped into the 30s across portions of the Midwest, central and western Great Lakes region, bringing a first frost and/or freeze to many locations.

The image at the top of the post shows the forecast departure from normal with respect to temperatures this afternoon.  As you can see, readings are forecast to average 15-20 degrees below normal (purple shaded areas) from portions of New York state, back into the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley region.  

A cool afternoon today will lead to a very chilly night tonight, with readings forecast to drop below freezing across portions of the Northeast.  Frost and/or freeze warnings are in effect for the areas shaded in blue on the image below for tonight and early Thursday morning:

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Severe Weather, Heavy Rainfall Threat Eastern U.S. Today...

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK.  Severe storms with damaging winds are a significant threat within the red and yellow shaded areas on the image, and to a somewhat lesser degree within the surrounding brown shaded areas.

There is also a risk of a few tornadoes today, especially within the yellow and brown shaded areas on the image below:

Thunderstorms are already underway in earnest across the southeast, as you can see on the latest regional radar snapshot below:

A Tornado Watch was just issued for the North Carolina portion of this activity, and is likely only the first of several watches to be issued across the Eastern Seaboard today:

In addition to the threat of severe weather, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be a significant concern in many areas.  The latest rainfall forecast for today is shown below, and you can see widespread amounts of 1-3 inches (plus) are forecast across the region:

Amounts will be locally heavier in some areas that experience repeat thunderstorms, with 4 inches or more of rain possible in those areas today.

If you live or have travel plans across this region, please be alert.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings.  If you are in the severe weather threat area for today, please make sure to have a sheltering plan in place for home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your location.

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A Look at Rainfall Totals in Texas

Above is a summary of precipitation that occurred across Texas, mainly during the period Friday through Sunday.

As you can see, widespread amounts of 2-5 inches were received along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio through the Austin area (darker yellow, orange and red shaded areas on the image).

The darker green shadings represent 1-2 inch rains, which took place across a significant portion of the state, as well as portions of western and northern Oklahoma.

Heavy rains fell yesterday across Arkansas and Louisiana (as represented on the right hand side of the image).

As the rain fell across Texas over a 3 day period, there were no instances of significant flooding.  Unfortunately, this won't be the case as the system moves to the Eastern U.S. through Wednesday.

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Major Storm System to Batter Eastern U.S. Through Wednesday...

The same storm system that brought widespread, beneficial rain to much of Texas over the weekend is just getting started.  Above is a recent water vapor satellite image of the system, with middle and upper level wind flow overlaid on the same image.

The system will produce widespread, heavy rainfall across a good portion of the Eastern U.S. over the next 2 days.  The latest precipitation forecast from the HPC is shown below, valid 7am today through 7am Wednesday (CDT):

While the rains will be helpful to some, they will be hurtful to others, causing some major flooding problems in many instances.  Flood and/or Flash Flood Watches are already in effect from West Virginia into portions of Kentucky, Tennessee and North Carolina.  

Severe thunderstorms will also be a concern, mainly on Tuesday.  Below is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK.  Severe storms are forecast anywhere within the brown shaded area on the image, with an enhanced threat in the yellow and especially the red shaded areas:

Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across this area on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  If you live in these areas, please be alert and listen for the latest weather information and possible warnings on Tuesday.  Make sure to have a sheltering location picked out ahead of time, whether at home, work or school, that way you can move there quickly if a threat develops.

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Typhoon Sanba Bearing Down on Okinawa, Japan...

A very impressive Typhoon Sanba has its eyes (or "eye", literally) on Okinawa, Japan this morning, and it is a formidable storm indeed.  Maximum sustained winds are currently 115 mph with gusts as high as 161 mph.  The wide view of the radar (below) will give you more perspective as to the location and size of the system in relation to Japan as a whole: 

The visible satellite presentation is just as impressive, with an extremely tight, well defined eye structure, suggesting top winds may even be a bit higher than what is noted on the latest official observation:

The center of Sanba will pass over Okinawa and the southern Islands by midday (U.S. time) today, and is then forecast to track over the East China Sea well to the West of Kagoshima during the day Sunday (again, U.S. time):

The tiny islands of southern Japan are no match for this type of system, so hopefully folks in this region have taken precautions as this system approached over the past few days.

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