Too Close for Comfort: Tornado Video from Milan, Italy Yesterday

From the "Don't Try This At Home" Department, incredible video of a tornado passing overhead or very nearby the videographer in the Trezzo region of Milan, Italy yesterday.

Due to the relative rarity of such an event in this region, it is quite possible that the videographer didn't realize the danger involved in what he was doing.  All disclaimers aside, the video is very impressive and an excellent educational tool.

The whistling sound that you hear beginning about midway through the video is the sound of the wind racing through the "air tight" windows of the commercial building.  About the same time the whistling begins, you'll see a transformer explode outside the window.

I could not embed the video in any other way other than landscape mode, so be sure to click the "full screen" button in the lower right hand corner to view the entire image.

Below is another video of the same tornado from far enough away such that you can actually see the condensation funnel:

According to media reports, 12 people were injured.

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Heavy Rain Tonight & Friday to Delay Storm Recovery in the Tulsa Area...

As mentioned at the time on facebook and twitter, severe thunderstorms produced widespread wind damage across the Tulsa area on Tuesday Night / early Wednesday morning.  

At one point early yesterday nearly 100,000 customers were without power in the Tulsa metro area.  That number has been shaved back to about 45,000 as of this morning, according to AEP/PSO:

The company is currently projecting that 95% of customers will have power back by 5pm on Saturday, however I'm concerned that weather conditions tonight and Friday are not being factored into the equation.

Unfortunately, at this time it appears that several rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity will take place across the area, with several high resolution computer forecast models suggesting 2-4 inches of rain likely for the period tonight through 7pm CDT on Friday:

Hopefully crews will get far enough ahead of the game today so that the impact will be minimized, but there seems little doubt that recovery efforts as whole will be slowed way down across the area on Friday.

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"Catastrophic" Hail Damage in Burgundy Region of France

One or more rounds of severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and large hail pounded the Burgundy region of France on Tuesday afternoon (local time).  

Several vineyards are calling the damage "catastrophic", with some areas reporting 90% or more of their crops destroyed.  The photo above shows extensive damage (right half of the picture) to a vineyard in Beaune (photo courtesy Iain Doire).

Thunderstorms with hail of ping pong ball size or larger have plagued the region in recent years.  About this same time last year, nearly 60% of crops were impacted by another hail storm that struck the region.

Lower than average yields in recent years have resulted in increased pressure on prices, which are likely to continue to rise as a result of the latest incident.

For more information, see this article at thedrinksbusiness.com.  

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Iowa: Ground Zero for Mammatus Yesterday Evening...

A round of severe thunderstorms produced widespread hail across a large chunk of central and northern Iowa yesterday afternoon and evening.

While some of the hail was destructive, the thunderstorm activity also produced beautiful mammatus clouds across the region, as shared by KWWL Chief Meteorologist Mark Schnackenberg (viewer photos):

Mammatus clouds are often associated with severe thunderstorms, particularly those which are prolific hail producers.  Their grouping, lobe like character are associated with turbulence bubbling up and down in the anvil or "belly" of a severe thunderstorm.

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Recent Study Suggests Storm Chasers Positively Contribute to Tornado Awareness...

Following the deadly events in Moore and El Reno, OK in May, there was much discussion of "banning" or otherwise placing significant restrictions on storm chasers.

It's easy to jump to conclusions and make hasty declarations following such a devastating and traumatic event.  I think in the ensuing days, calmer heads have prevailed, and there is even some recent statistical evidence that suggests storm chasers have positively contributed to tornado awareness, which we know has a direct impact on tornado safety.

Research performed by Laura E. Michaels, Kelsey N. Scheitlin, and Ian J. Elsner (to be published in the Weather, Climate and Society Journal later this year) shows that it is just as common for a tornado to be reported well away from population centers today as it is near the city itself.  

In the past, reports of tornadoes were far more common near population centers than in rural areas, as illustrated by the chart below (I've inserted metric to English conversions at the bottom):

As you can see, during the most recent period of 2002-2011, you're almost as likely to hear of a tornado report "in the country" as you are "in the city".  James Elsner, one of the researchers involved in the study, states on his blog "we show evidence that this (result) could be related in part to an increase in the number of storm chasers..."

Meteorologists have long known of the contribution that responsible storm chasers make to severe weather awareness and safety, but as far as I know there hasn't been a formal study made that puts some "numbers" behind the suggestion. Perhaps this will be the one.  I look forward to reading the full publication and will post a review here on the blog when it becomes available.

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Happy 4th of July!

Have fun and stay safe!

Overall, there are no major severe weather threats across the nation today, but a few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail in a belt from the central Gulf Coast through New England this afternoon and evening, as well as over New Mexico and Montana.

The primary concern today will be that of locally heavy rainfall in the Deep South, Southeast and Tennessee valley region, some of which could produce flash flooding, especially within the purple and blue shaded areas on the rainfall forecast map below:

If you're worried that bad weather may impact your outdoor activities today, be sure to bring along a weather radio or smartphone app that will alert you to any severe weather threats.

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Tornado Safety: Why It's Unwise to Wait Before Seeking Shelter...

A tornado struck the Myrtle Beach, SC area during the late afternoon hours of Saturday, June 29, 2013.  The above video was taken by resident Melissa Porshia and posted to You Tube.

If you look closely (and she points it out), you can see debris in the air around the circulation, but there is no visible funnel cloud present during this particular video segment.

A photo taken by Kathleen Winans shows the tornado from another vantage point, likely just after the above video had ended:

As you can see, by that time a "traditional" condensation funnel had become apparent, though it does not appear to extend all the way to the ground.

Fortunately this tornado was weak, with only EF-0 damage found - but don't let that mislead you.  I've seen cases where much stronger tornadoes caused damage with little or no visible funnel extending all the way to the ground at the time.

The point of this post is to illustrate that a condensation funnel does not need to be present in order for there to be a danger from a tornado.  The circulation is what counts - and there may not always be visible evidence of a funnel cloud.

Further proof that when a Tornado Warning is issued, you should seek shelter immediately!

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The Weather's Role in the Tragedy at the Yarnell Hill Fire...

As I'm sure you know by now, all but 1 of the 20 member team known as the "Granite Mountain Hotshots" was killed in the line of duty yesterday.  They were fighting the out of control wildfire known as the "Yarnell Hill" blaze in Arizona.

The small town of Yarnell is located about 60 miles to the Northwest of Phoenix and about 25 miles to the Southwest of Prescott, Arizona:

It is currently estimated that over 250 homes (approximately 65% of the total) have been destroyed in the community since the fire began on Saturday - the result of a lightning strike from an otherwise "dry" thunderstorm.

While all of the details surrounding the deaths of the firefighters are not yet clear, a quick examination of the data from yesterday as well as what is taking place again today suggests that the weather did, in fact, play a crucial role in the tragedy.

This time of the year, surface winds are typically of a Southerly or Southwesterly direction across the region.  Each afternoon, thunderstorms typically form along the edge of the higher terrain to the Northeast, and move toward the Southwest or West/Southwest.

The radar, satellite and lightning data mosaic below shows thunderstorm activity that is developing and moving Southwest toward the Yarnell blaze as of this writing:

As you can see by the surface weather observation table below, the wind shifted from Southerly earlier in the day to a NW-N direction as the thunderstorms passed over the Prescott airport (and note that the wind has since shifted back to the South after a 2-hour impact from the thunderstorms):

As the thunderstorms move toward Yarnell, the wind will shift there too, and if taken by surprise and/or with a sudden increase in speed, the results can be disastrous - just as we saw yesterday.

One tool that firefighters have at their disposal when caught by surprise includes an emergency "shelter", which is similar in construction to a light weight sleeping bag, but this one is coated in a heavily fire retardant material:

Ironically, the photo above was taken as part of a training exercise with the Granite Mountain Hotshots just last year.

So, with the information that the crew was supplied with similar emergency sheltering equipment yesterday, the question remains:  what happened?  Was the wind shift and resultant barrage of fire so immediate and intense that they had little or no time to react?  Will we ever know?

As difficult as it is to say this, the fact of the matter is that the location(s) and condition(s) of the firefighter's bodies when they were discovered should shed some light as to what action they may or may not have been able to take prior to becoming overwhelmed by the raging inferno.  Only time will tell for sure whether or not this was the case.

In the meantime, this entire situation provides another stunning glimpse at what can happen when a sudden and drastic change in the weather is juxtaposed with an ongoing natural disaster.

We certainly pray for comfort to the family and friends of those lost yesterday, and for strength and resilience to those who continue to fight the Yarnell Hill and other wildfires in the coming days.

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Interview with Reputation.com...

I was recently asked to do an interview with Reputation.com.  They were interested in hearing from someone who has to report on "bad news" a lot, and how such a person is able to maintain a "good" reputation.

I was glad to do the interview, but I must admit that I was taken aback just a bit when they approached me.  Until they pointed it out, I guess I never considered myself a deliverer of primarily "bad news".  Sure, I cover a lot of tragic weather related events here on the blog, but I also have the pleasure of delivering good news to lots of folks on a daily basis as well.

I probably don't write about the "good news" here on the blog that often because those events are typically focused on a specific person, group or event, and most readers (other than those directly impacted) would probably find little value in hearing about it.

As an example, over the weekend I was able to help officials make sure that a Little League Baseball game got underway safely despite lightning in the area.  In another case, I recently received a nice letter from a bride who thanked me for telling her outdoor wedding venue that it would not rain on her big day, despite local media forecasts to the contrary.  On Friday I helped a homeowner get a large insurance claim paid by proving that hail damaged his roof on a certain day.

The "good news" examples above came about as a result of the work that I do on a daily basis at my company, WeatherGuidance.  

So, it's not all bad news - but I guess sometimes the bad news gets more press than the good.  Also, it's widely known that many people love to play "kill the messenger", and meteorologists are probably victims of that syndrome more than most any other profession out there!

Here's the link to the interview...

P.S.:  I am not a customer/user of reputation.com (although I am familiar with their work at helping businesses and others monitor their online reputations), nor did they compensate me in any way for the interview.

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Thanks for Your Patience - Please Stand By...

Due to circumstances beyond our control...the blog has been "offline" for a couple of weeks.  Thanks for your patience...and let the blogging begin again!

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