A tornado struck the Myrtle Beach, SC area during the late afternoon hours of Saturday, June 29, 2013. The above video was taken by resident Melissa Porshia and posted to You Tube.
If you look closely (and she points it out), you can see debris in the air around the circulation, but there is no visible funnel cloud present during this particular video segment.
A photo taken by Kathleen Winans shows the tornado from another vantage point, likely just after the above video had ended:
As you can see, by that time a "traditional" condensation funnel had become apparent, though it does not appear to extend all the way to the ground.
Fortunately this tornado was weak, with only EF-0 damage found - but don't let that mislead you. I've seen cases where much stronger tornadoes caused damage with little or no visible funnel extending all the way to the ground at the time.
The point of this post is to illustrate that a condensation funnel does not need to be present in order for there to be a danger from a tornado. The circulation is what counts - and there may not always be visible evidence of a funnel cloud.
Further proof that when a Tornado Warning is issued, you should seek shelter immediately!
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Before the news of "storm chaser" deaths associated with the tornadoes near El Reno, OK on May 31, 2013, the big buzz within some parts of the media and across the entire severe weather safety community had to do with scenes like the one above - a heavily congested I-35 heading South out of Oklahoma City, away from the incoming storms. So, what exactly are we looking at here? Is this simply rush hour traffic on a Friday afternoon? Is this a scene showing people attempting to flee the tornado warned area and get out of the danger zone? Could it be some of both? Assuming that even part of the congestion was caused by folks attempting to flee the danger zone, why would they do that instead of "sheltering in place" as they have been advised to do for many years? Was it because of the devastation that they had witnessed in Moore just over one week earlier, or were they following someone else's advice in a moment of fear and/or panic? Again, could it be some of both? If they were following another person's advice, chances are that it was that of meteorologist Mike Morgan at KFOR-TV. Mike was part of KFOR's live coverage that was broadcast not only on their air, but also on radio stations and internet streams that afternoon and evening. KFOR is also an NBC affiliate, so The Weather Channel (which is owned by NBC Universal) also carried significant portions of KFOR's coverage live, including segments like this one below. Pay particular attention to Mike's words from about 0:50 to 1:25 into the video:
My main takeaway was that his advice to residents was:
• You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground
• Get away (in your vehicle) from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter
This particular segment addressed the threat to residents of Yukon, but a very similar (if not identical) message was relayed as tornadoes threatened El Reno, south Oklahoma City and other areas as well.
So, was this good advice or was it not? In my opinion, the answer is mostly "no", but to be completely fair, let's take a closer look at each point:
• "You can't survive this tornado if you're not underground..." Obviously, that's not a true statement, as nothing is impossible when it comes to tornado survival. In the least, this was a poor choice of words, but they were the same words that he would repeat numerous times that day.
With that said, it is absolutely true that if you want to ensure your survival in a strong or violent tornado situation, your best bet is always to shelter below ground. This is not a news bulletin to anyone living in Oklahoma or other areas that are frequented by strong and violent tornadoes. It's a fact of life (literally).
Another important point to remember when considering the underground vs. above ground sheltering option is that it's not necessarily a "direct hit" by a tornado that causes deaths. More often than not, tornado deaths are the result of debris hitting the victim in the head, chest or torso, and that can happen well away from the actual "center" of the tornado's path. This is the main reason, in my opinion, that getting below ground is always the best, safest option, if such an option is available...
...and many folks in this region do have such an option, either via a basement or storm cellar that has been in place for years, or via a storm shelter that has been installed following violent tornado events of recent years).
Many folks in this area also have a friend or relative that has such an option if they don't have one of their own - but you have to assess the threat well ahead of time (i.e., when the Tornado Watch is issued - don't wait for the Warning) and be able to safely get to that location well before the actual threat exists.
• "Get away from the tornado if you don't have adequate shelter..." Very good advice, but not when you have only minutes to react. This is particularly the case when you live in a heavily populated metropolitan area where roads can become congested quickly on their own, much less in an emergency evacuation type situation.
For years now, I've been advising residents of mobile homes and other vulnerable locations without a nearby sheltering option to leave their home and go to a friend or relative's house or other more suitable structure as soon as a Tornado Watch is issued for their area. You absolutely do not want to try and flee by vehicle once you're in a warning situation, particularly in a heavily populated area where there is a potential for you to get stuck on a log jammed roadway.
Should you do this every time a Tornado Watch is issued? That's a matter of personal opinion and is unique to your specific situation. If you are "scared to death" in almost any tornado situation, then you probably should. If you're only concerned about "the big one", you'll likely be given clues by trusted meteorologists and other sources before the event actually begins to unfold. On my blog, I always use words like "pay particular attention to the weather in this area", or "one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible today" when trying to get the word out about a particularly volatile situation.
After making repeated statements like the ones in the video above, many were understandably quick to jump on Mike Morgan's case over the weekend, particularly when it was revealed that several of the deaths in the OKC Metro area on Friday took place on roadways. While I believe that his intentions were probably good, I feel that he delivered the advice either (1). using a poor choice and/or combination of words and/or (2). when it was too late for people to safely do something about their situation, potentially causing more of a "panic" mode.
In my opinion, the 12 Noon newscast that day (if not before) would have been the time to suggest that folks line up a more suitable sheltering option if they weren't comfortable with the one they would have later in the afternoon and evening. That would have given folks some time to contact a friend or relative, make a plan and not have to rush out in a moment of panic into a potentially dangerous situation.
The fact of the matter is that we'll probably never know why all of the people that did choose to flee made that decision on Friday. Not everyone in OKC watches KFOR-TV or The Weather Channel. I feel that many probably reacted that way when they heard that another potentially devastating tornado was headed their way again, especially after what they had witnessed in Moore the week before. Add some traditional and/or social media "hysteria" to the mix, and you have all of the necessary ingredients for a full blown panic situation for some.
Without a doubt, the combination of rush hour traffic, people fleeing based on bad advice and people fleeing based on their own fear of the situation turned out to be a major problem for almost all involved, and it may have even resulted in death for a select number (although that is difficult to quantify based on the information that we have to date). A tragic situation anyway you look at it, and one that could have been avoided last Friday and should be avoided in the future.
"No Other Options"
So, what do you do if you don't have an underground shelter and a strong or violent tornado will potentially affect your location in minutes?
Do the same thing you've been told to do since Kindergarten: get in a small interior room or hallway on the lowest floor of your location and cover your head and upper body as much as possible.
Bathrooms and closets offer great protection, but be sure to put as many walls between you and the exterior of your location as possible (don't go to one on the outside wall). The bathroom is probably the best option in this case, as the pipes in the walls may offer additional support and protection.
If you have a bicycle, motorcycle, football or other type of "crash helmet", put it on, especially on the kids. Head injuries are among the leading causes of tornado fatalities, particularly in children.
"Caught In the Car"
If you are caught in your vehicle and a tornado is approaching (whether you're stuck in rush hour traffic, blocked by a flooded road or took some bad advice and tried to run away from the tornado when it was too late), by all means get out of the vehicle!
I was shocked and appalled to see the American Red Cross of all people recommend last year that it was "safe" to stay seat belted in your car if a tornado was approaching. I could not disagree more, and the statistics from Joplin, Moore, and most recently in El Reno prove that without a doubt, a vehicle is no safe place to be during a strong or violent tornado.
If you are caught in your vehicle and have no way to safely get out of the situation, leave your car immediately and lay low in a ditch, ravine or other low spot. Again, cover your head and upper body as much as possible, and if you have a helmet available, put it on!
As I always try to point out, you can survive a tornado regardless of your circumstances. The main thing is to plan ahead, that way you are less likely to panic and make a bad decision when the critical time does come.
Our thoughts and prayers continue to be with the folks that have been devastated by tornadoes over the last month, and we hope that the worst of this season is behind us - but please take some time to prepare and have a safety action plan in place now, just in case another threat does develop in your area.
For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
Be sure to check out the all new "Severe Weather Headquarters" page, brought to you by our sister company, WeatherGuidance. To access it, just click on the severe weather outlook map located on the right hand side of the blog homepage (as shown below):
It includes the latest severe weather outlooks for the next 7 days, an interactive watch, warning and advisory page, as well as interactive weather radar with street level zoom and current warning information! Watch for additional content to be added over the coming severe weather season. Often such additions are based on your comments or questions, so be sure to let me know if you're in need of something that isn't there!
For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
Coming April, 2013: "The Tornado Chronicles"full website!
•Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!
Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebookfor the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!
Both the U.S. based GFS computer forecast model and the European computer forecast model continue to strongly suggest that a wet, stormy April is instore for much of the central and eastern two-thirds of the U.S., including many areas that are currently in a severe to extreme drought situation. The image below shows the GFS and European model total rainfall forecast, respectively, for the period today through April 4th (scale in inches at the right hand side of the image):
As you can see, both of the models are forecasting a wet first week of April from the Southern Plains and Deep South into the lower and middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions.
The European model forecast out through 360 hours (or April 11th), shows the likelihood of significant precipitation expanding both Westward into the drought stricken southern and central Plains, and Northeastward into the southeast U.S. and along much of the Eastern seaboard:
High resolution precipitation forecasts are not available from the GFS model beyond 192 hours, and I show the European output because it is typically more accurate for the longer range time periods. The above trends correspond well to the forecast output over the last 30 days by the Climate Forecast System (CFS) models. The image below shows that model's precipitation forecast for the month of April:
As you can see, that particular model is forecasting a bullseye of 5-10 inch rainfall over a large part of Texas and Oklahoma, which would certainly be welcome considering the present drought conditions:
I wouldn't typically put a whole lot of stock into the CFS model prediction by itself, but that forecast coupled with the signals from both the GFS and European models leads me to believe that the general trend of a wet, stormy April appears likely for these areas.
Of course, with beneficial rainfall often comes a threat of severe thunderstorm and tornado activity in the spring, so take some time now to make sure that you're prepared before the unsettled weather arrives!
For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
Coming April 1, 2013: "The Tornado Chronicles"full website!
•Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!
Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebookfor the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!
When you're publishing a free "public interest/public service" type of blog (like this one) and running a commercial business (like my company, WeatherGuidance), that provides similar information on a paid-for basis at the same time, its always a challenge to decide where the line should be drawn when sharing information. After much debate, I've decided to start publishing a few of the daily severe weather outlook maps that we issue to our WeatherGuidance clients here on the blog. What I will be posting here on the blog will give you a large scale view of any potential severe weather threat, including tornadoes, generally on a national scale. I hope that you'll find the information helpful, and more accurate than some of the other "cookie cutter" products that are out there on the internet and on TV. For example, here is the map that was published earlier this afternoon, valid for this evening and tonight (click to enlarge):
As you can see by the legend shown in the lower right hand corner of the image, the forecast threat of severe weather is presented in a color coded basis, with blue showing a threat for isolated severe storms (generally 25% or less coverage), green showing scattered severe storms (25-50% coverage), and yellow showing a threat of widespread severe storms (greater than 50% coverage in a given area):
If there is a threat for significant severe weather during the period, this will be indicated by a red shaded area (isolated to scattered coverage) or a lavender shaded area (widespread coverage). Significant severe weather is described as hail of 2 inches in diameter or greater, wind gusts of 75 mph or higher, and/or strong/long track tornadoes.
Major population centers of an affected area will also be shown on the maps (as was the case with Louisville and Indianapolis on the above image).
An outlook specific to tornado potential will be posted here on the blog whenever there is a threat for significant and/or widespread tornado activity during a given time period. For "day to day" tornado outlooks which include forecasts of less widespread and/or less intense events, please be sure to follow "The Tornado Chronicles" page on facebook, as well as the full website that is coming within a week to 10 days.
As an example, here is what the latest Tornado Outlook map looks like for this coming Monday (this particular post will not be updated, so please check the Tornado Chronicles for updates this weekend):
...and here is a zoom-in on the legend for that product:
The Tornado Outlook map follows a similar flow as the Severe Weather Outlook map, with the potential for isolated tornadoes shown in blue, scattered in green and numerous/widespread in yellow. If significant tornadoes (EF2 thru EF5 intensity and/or long tracks) are forecast, this will be indicated by areas shaded in red (significant tornadoes are "possible") and lavender (significant tornadoes are "likely").
In general, the Severe Weather Outlook maps will be published here on the blog daily (one for today, one for tomorrow and one for future dates, where applicable) during the early to mid-morning hours. The maps will be updated later in the day if necessary.
WeatherGuidance customers receive the same initial "large scale" maps in addition to more detailed maps focusing on their specific location(s) and/or operating area, as well as versions that are customized to address the specific types of severe weather concerns that impact their operations (such as the example below):
What kinds of clients does WeatherGuidance serve? Here are just a few examples: school districts, municipal and county governments, hospitals, sporting venues, amusement parks, outdoor recreation areas, industrial and manufacturing facilities. For more information on the types of customized, site specific weather forecasts and storm warning services that WeatherGuidance provides, please visit the "Real World Examples" page of our website.
I hope you'll find the information helpful this severe weather season, and most of all, I hope that you and your family are well prepared and stay safe in the stormy months ahead!
For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
Coming March 2013: "The Tornado Chronicles"full website!
•Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!
Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebookfor the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!
For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
Coming March 2013: "The Tornado Chronicles"full website!
•Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom
• Tornado safety, preparedness and education
• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
• Photos, videos and more!
Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebookfor the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!
Residents of Midwest City, a suburb of Oklahoma City, who have come to rely upon the city's three public tornado shelters over the years will have to find a new place to take cover this severe weather season.
The city council voted to close the shelters, primarily citing a concern that if they were to reach capacity, some folks might have to be turned away during the middle of a severe weather situation.
I wasn't satisfied that the quote from Assistant City Manager Tim Rundel indicated that people had, in fact, been turned away in the past. A quick check of the internet couldn't find any specific evidence of that either, so I guess the city views this as a preemptive move.
I'm sure the media in the OKC area is all over this story and that the city will make sure that all citizens are informed of the closures. At the same time, I can't help but wonder what type of situation a citizen could potentially be placed in if they take off for the public shelter during a tornado warning this spring only to find the doors locked?
Reed Center - 1 of Midwest City's (now former)
public tornado sheltering locations
Other than contacting your councilman, congressman or senator, what are you to do? There are two main choices, I suppose: (1). build your own shelter or (2). make friends with someone who has extra space in theirs!
The article (at the link above) stated that FEMA grants have assisted 800 residents of the city in obtaining personal storm shelters, and some 1300 other residents have registered a tornado shelter with the city in recent years. While I agree that a personal storm shelter is clearly the way to go, the grants were apparently distributed on a first come, first served basis and have already been exhausted. Therefore, they will be of little help to those who are faced with the news that their public shelter resource is now unavailable.
As I've pointed out here on the blog over the years, statistically speaking you have a very good chance of surviving the "average" tornado in a frame built home or similar structure, by seeking shelter in the smallest interior room on the lowest floor (like a bathroom or closet).
Small 1st floor closet is all that remains
standing after a tornado hit this home.
If, however, you live in a mobile home,you must leave it without question in a tornado situation.
While public shelters have always been a nice option in the mobile home situation, I've always suggested that if you live in a mobile home and you know that there is a threat of tornadoes (via forecasts and/or a Tornado Watch is issued for your location) that you should try and contact a friend or relative that has a more substantial shelter. I would make some sort of arrangement to stay with them until the threat has ended. Other than going outside and getting in the ditch if a tornado threatens, that is probably your best option.
Mobile homes are no match for a tornado
I would never use a vehicle as a form of shelter either (I know some sources are making that recommendation now, but I am not convinced that it is safe). If you find yourself caught outdoors in a tornado with no substantial shelter nearby, the best thing to do is lay as flat as possible in a ditch or other low spot until the tornado passes.
As we head toward the spring severe weather season, we'll have additional updated information on the latest safety and sheltering tips for this year here on the blog, as well as on our new site, The Tornado Chronicles, which launches on March 1 (see below for details and to follow the new site).
For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:
Coming March 2013: The Tornado Chroniclesfull website!
Including information on every U.S. tornado since 1950, tornado safety, preparedness and education as well as interactive radar, tornado outlooks, watches and warnings, and much more! Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebookfor the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!
Numerous instances of strong and violent tornado events over the last 18 months have prompted many families across the central and eastern U.S. to stop and consider what they would do in the event of a tornado emergency in their area.
To be sure, seeking shelter in an interior hallway closet or bathroom on the lowest floor of your home offers adequate protection in most "run of the mill" tornado situations. With that said, the plain and simple fact of the matter is that if you want to be assured of survival in the event of a strong or violent tornado, you need to seek shelter underground.
Basements, the old "stand by" have come somewhat under fire recently due to the revelation that they are filling up with debris in many significant tornado situations. I took this photo of a basement full of a house in Joplin after the tragic event there last May...and this wasn't the only basement that I saw full or completely full in the Joplin area:
Clearly, seeking shelter in a basement is safer than staying above ground in most cases. However, events like the one above and all across the Southeast and Ohio Valley last year (and in some cases already this year) illustrate the fact that in the strongest of tornado situations, you need to protect yourself even further if at all possible.
Long time blog follower Tricia lives in Oklahoma with her husband and four girls. Some of you will recognize her as Planet Pink, from her blog of the same name. We've been e-mailing back and forth for awhile now about storm shelters, as she and her family were deciding on the best type to fit their needs.
Well, the exciting day finally came last month, and Tricia and her family are now the proud owners of an underground storm shelter in their garage! Their shelter was installed by FlatSafe, a National Storm Shelter Association (NSSA) and Texas Tech "wind tunnel approved" shelter company based out of Oklahoma City.
The shelter is 3 feet wide, 7 feet long and 5 feet deep and seats 8 people. It has a single door design and includes a winch should the door become unable to be opened manually:
The single door design has become important in recent years as it has been revealed that dual-door designs (where one door slides over or under another) can jam due to debris pile up or impact. The particular shelter that Tricia had installed has been tested to hold tons of weight directly on top of the unit without compromising the strength of the door:
The winch would provide assistance if the door were ever to become weighted down by an average amount of debris, but would be of little help in a rare situation where you have an overturned vehicle or other very heavy debris field laying on top of the unit. Its for that reason that it's important to let neighbors (or someone else close by) know that you have an underground shelter, that way they can alert emergency workers in any extreme case where you might be unable to get out on your own. The city that Tricia lives in also has a storm shelter registry, which is distributed to emergency personnel in the area in the event of a disaster.
Tricia and her family had to go through some extra steps to have their underground shelter installed. Namely, they had to have a foundation company come out before the installation to cut out the hole and tie off the post tension cables in the foundation. Your shelter company should be able to provide guidance to you as to what pre-installation steps would be required based on the construction of your home and soil type in your area.
As you can see in the above photo, Tricia has younger children. The girls have put together a "storm kit" with crayons, coloring books and a few other things to keep them occupied when down there, and to ease the tension as well. They've had several "tornado drills" as well, where the family gets down in the shelter and closes the door.
Other than the obvious safety implications, having a shelter installed is very much about establishing peace of mind. Tricia knows that the chances of an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado striking her home are very small, but she is more at ease during severe weather situations just knowing that the shelter is there if they need it.
While an underground shelter offers the most protection you can get in a violent tornado situation, they are also more expensive than their above ground "tornado saferoom" cousins. Tornado saferooms also offer a great amount of protection, and if you have a basement in a tornado prone area, I highly recommend having one installed in one corner for added protection from falling debris.
Tricia and her family considered having a saferoom installed in the garage instead of the underground model, but she felt safer taking the underground option (and I agree), not to mention the fact that the saferoom would have taken up quite a bit of their garage space.
If you are building a new home, there are also options available where you can fortify a pre-planned closet or bathroom and turn it into a tornado saferoom at the same time. If you choose this method and use the closet option, make sure to keep it clear during a severe weather situation!
When considering shelter options, be sure that the company you are planning to deal with has been certified by the National Storm Shelter Association (NSSA). You can visit their website for a listing of qualified companies in your area. I also suggest that you go a step further and make sure that the particular shelter they propose to install for you has been tested and passed by the Texas Tech Wind Science & Engineering Center.
If you don't have an underground shelter or a tornado saferoom option in your home, there are other actions that you can take to protect yourself and your family. Please read my guide "Severe Weather Safety and Preparedness: Seeking Shelter" for helpful information and safety tips before severe weather threatens your area this season. Many of the tips in the guide are new for 2012, taking lessons from the horrible events of last year.
Neither a shelter nor a safety guide will help you if you are caught unaware of a severe weather threat to your area. Be sure to stay alert on days when severe weather is forecast (we provide daily severe weather outlooks for the entire country here on the blog as a starting point for you) and listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest statements, watches and warnings.
Thanks very much to Tricia and her family for sharing their story with us!
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