Significant Severe Weather, Tornado Event(s) Still Expected Next Week...

All of the ingredients continue to come together in suggesting that one or more days of significant severe weather are likely during the period Monday through Wednesday of next week.

As I mentioned in a post yesterday, the European model and the U.S. based GFS model were in disagreement with respect to the timing of the surface front that will focus severe weather development.  In the last 24 hours, the GFS has slowed the progress of the front considerably (as we suspected it would yesterday) and is now in very close agreement with the European model as to the timing.  I point this out because, unfortunately, it results in an even higher level of confidence as far as the forecast of this major event.

The images below show the severe weather threat areas as forecast for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, respectively.

On Monday, the primary threat will exist along and ahead of a surface dryline extending from the western High Plains of Kansas, western Oklahoma and Eastern portions of the panhandle region of Texas/Oklahoma:

Coverage is expected to be scattered on Monday afternoon and evening, with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible, primarily within the area shaded in green on the image above.

At this time it appears that all ingredients are coming together for a widespread and significant severe weather episode on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The primary threat area is shown in green and reddish-orange on the image below:

Present indications suggest that conditions will be favorable for large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong and/or long tracked on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The highest threat of significant severe weather is indicated within the reddish-orange shaded areas on the above image and includes the cities of Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Fayetteville and Ft. Smith.

By Wednesday, the primary threat will have shifted East/Southeastward into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region, as indicated on the image below:

Once again, large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible with severe storms in the indicated areas on Wednesday.  The primary tornado threat will exist within the reddish-orange shaded areas, which includes the cities of Shreveport, Baton Rouge, Little Rock, Memphis and Jackson.

There is some question as to how unstable the atmosphere will be able to become on Wednesday due to forecast widespread precipitation.  This may limit the extent of the "significant" tornado risk as compared to Tuesday, but we still cannot rule out the possibility of a strong tornado on Wednesday.  This threat should become more clear as we approach the event, so please watch for further updates.

Speaking of widespread precipitation, as we pointed out in a post a week or so ago, it appears that fairly widespread, locally heavy rainfall will also occur in association with this system.  The image below shows the European model total rainfall forecast valid through 7pm CDT next Thursday:

As you can see, rainfall amounts in excess of 2-3 inches are forecast on a fairly widespread basis (scale in inches at the right of the image) from the central and southern Plains into the Midwest and middle through lower Mississippi Valley region.  While this is good news for drought stricken areas in Kansas and Oklahoma, it will cause flooding problems in the Mississippi Valley region.

This is a potentially dangerous weather situation that is shaping up for the period Monday through Wednesday of next week, and particularly on Tuesday. Please pay attention to the weather if you live in the indicated areas.  Take some time now to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips, and plan where your best sheltering option will be at home, work or school.  Some of the severe weather threat will also take place at night, so make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings during the overnight hours.

We'll continue to monitor this situation with additional updates forthcoming as details become more clear...

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Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

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• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

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A Wet and Stormy April Is Ahead...

Both the U.S. based GFS computer forecast model and the European computer forecast model continue to strongly suggest that a wet, stormy April is instore for much of the central and eastern two-thirds of the U.S., including many areas that are currently in a severe to extreme drought situation.

The image below shows the GFS and European model total rainfall forecast, respectively, for the period today through April 4th (scale in inches at the right hand side of the image):

As you can see, both of the models are forecasting a wet first week of April from the Southern Plains and Deep South into the lower and middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions.

The European model forecast out through 360 hours (or April 11th), shows the likelihood of significant precipitation expanding both Westward into the drought stricken southern and central Plains, and Northeastward into the southeast U.S. and along much of the Eastern seaboard:

High resolution precipitation forecasts are not available from the GFS model beyond 192 hours, and I show the European output because it is typically more accurate for the longer range time periods.

The above trends correspond well to the forecast output over the last 30 days by the Climate Forecast System (CFS) models.  The image below shows that model's precipitation forecast for the month of April:

As you can see, that particular model is forecasting a bullseye of 5-10 inch rainfall over a large part of Texas and Oklahoma, which would certainly be welcome considering the present drought conditions:

I wouldn't typically put a whole lot of stock into the CFS model prediction by itself, but that forecast coupled with the signals from both the GFS and European models leads me to believe that the general trend of a wet, stormy April appears likely for these areas.

Of course, with beneficial rainfall often comes a threat of severe thunderstorm and tornado activity in the spring, so take some time now to make sure that you're prepared before the unsettled weather arrives!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April 1, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Recent Heavy Snow Put a Dent in the Central Plains Drought...

Although its still a long way from over, a significant reduction in drought severity has taken place recently as a result of heavy snow across portions of the central and southern Plains states - particularly across Oklahoma and central & eastern Kansas.

As an example, take a look at this dramatic comparison picture from long time blog reader Dave Schweitzer's (you can follow him at @tornado_dave on twitter) pond near Calumet, OK:

Indeed, much needed moisture has fallen over 100% of the Sooner State for the last 30 days, with areas in red receiving over 5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation: 

The same is true, though to a lesser magnitude, for a good part of the central Plains.  Note the pronounced dry exception, though, over a large part of the Midwest:

...and it remains very dry over a significant part of Texas:

It remains to be seen just how the major "storm track" (i.e., jet stream pattern) will evolve as we head into the spring.  We certainly hope that the recent improvement is a sign of a longer term trend and over a much larger area.  Stay tuned, as we should begin to see hints of the longer term trends during the month of March!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!