Update on Winter Weather Event #1: Snow Getting Underway in High Plains...

Snow is spreading from the central and southern Rockies into the adjacent High Plains early this morning, as noted on the latest radar mosaic image above.  A mix of sleet, snow and in some cases freezing rain or freezing drizzle is taking place over southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle region (some of which is too light to be detected by the radar).

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the areas shaded in pink on the image below, with a variety of Winter Weather Advisories in effect for the areas shaded in tan:

Here are some snowfall totals so far, starting in the Southern portion of the region:

...and in the Northern part of the region (keep in mind, we're just getting started in Kansas and Nebraska):

When reading the blue text boxes on the 2 images above, the number immediately following "Event:" refers to the snow depth in inches.  For example, the box near Oberlin, KS says "Event:  3.3 SNOW".  This means that 3.3 inches of snow was measured at Oberlin.

As I pointed out in a couple of different posts yesterday, among all of the computer forecast models, the SREF model seems to be handling the snow accumulation forecast for this event very well at this time.  For example, on the latest image valid 12 Noon CST today, 4-6 inches of accumulation are forecast from northwest Kansas into southcentral Nebraska, and the reports and radar trends so far indicate this is a very good forecast:

Please note, the scale in inches of snow is located on the lower left portion of each of the SREF images.  By 3pm CST today, a narrow band of 6-8 inches of accumulation is forecast across this same region:

...and here is the forecast valid 6pm CST this afternoon/evening:

The HRRR forecast model, an experimental, small-scale model, is a bit more aggressive with snowfall totals across extreme northwest Kansas into central Nebraska, as noted on the image below, valid 6pm CST this evening:

As you can see, it is forecasting a snow accumulation of 2-3 inches higher than the SREF model (in the darker orange shaded areas).  I can certainly see this coming to pass in association with any heavier snow bursts that set-up across this region.

By Midnight tonight/Sunday morning, accumulating snows will have spread into northeast Iowa and across southeast Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin, as indicated by the image below:

Strong and gusty North winds will cause widespread blowing snow across the affected areas, and travel is highly discouraged across these areas today and tonight.

The forecast snowfall amounts that we're seeing (especially when paired with the current observations) suggest that "Winter Weather Advisory" criteria will be exceeded across portions of at least southcentral or southwest Nebraska today.  I would expect to see some type of advisory upgrade in this region.

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A Lot Going on Today/This Weekend... Here's How We'll Handle This...

We have significantly higher than normal traffic on the blog right now, with everything that's going on (and forecast to go on) across the Rockies and Plains over the next several days.  


To avoid confusion, I'll be referring to the first storm, which is ongoing now and will continue into Sunday, as "Event #1", and the next in line for Monday and Tuesday as "Event #2".  I'll also likely make separate posts dealing with the cold air invasion and the heavy rain threats, which will affect even larger parts of the country over the next few days...


If you're new to the blog, thanks for visiting!  I will try and respond to your e-mails as quickly as possible, but please keep in mind that we have much higher than normal e-mail volume going on right now as well.  I'll try to be as specific as possible within the posts themselves, that way I'll hopefully address any concerns that you have for your area...


Some of the e-mails that I've received have noted their appreciation for the work here and were asking how they can be of greater support.  Currently we have a lot more folks following the blog directly rather than on facebook or twitter.  If you have a facebook or twitter account, I'd appreciate your support by "liking" my facebook page and/or following me on twitter.  I also make short updates and/or comments there that I don't always post to the blog from time to time (especially during a rapidly changing situation), so that's another way for you to get information...


Thanks a bunch, and stay safe!

Winter Weather Event #2 Taking Aim on Oklahoma for Early Next Week...

In a post earlier today, I remarked that a large upper level low pressure system over the Southwest U.S. will come out across the southern Rockies and into the Plains in pieces over the next several days, rather than all at one time.  Please refer to that post (link in 1st sentence above) and the image below for details on this weekend's activity:

This purpose of this post is to alert folks of the next big piece of energy that is forecast to emerge out into the Plains on Monday.  It appears that this particular disturbance will affect areas much further South, as far as winter weather conditions are concerned:

There is no question but that widespread snow will take place in a swath from New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle and across much of Oklahoma and southeast Kansas on Monday and/or Monday night.  The real question right now is how much snow will fall and exactly where will the heaviest snow occur???

The computer forecast models are currently in full fledged "battle mode", with the GFS model suggesting 4-6 inches of snow only across west-central Oklahoma (scale in inches at the bottom of the image):

...while the NAM model is suggesting as much as a foot of snow will take place across a large portion of central and northern Oklahoma, as indicated by the darker red areas on the image below:

The SREF model generally lies in between the other two models, both with respect to the location of the heavier snow and the magnitude.  The image below from that model is valid 6pm CST on Monday (scale in inches of snow accumulation at the bottom left side of the image):

While many uncertainties still remain at this hour, I believe that the SREF model is currently trending toward the best solution (as far as snow accumulation is concerned) for Monday and Monday night.  The exact axis of where the heaviest snow will fall is still in question, and could fluctuate 50-75 miles in either direction from what is currently depicted on the image above.

We will be able to tell a lot more about how this situation is likely to unfold as early as tomorrow, and even more so on Sunday.  Folks across this region should closely monitor this developing weather situation and stay tuned for updates...

If you live in that part of Oklahoma and northwest Texas that will not be affected by winter weather on Saturday and Sunday, I would suggest taking that time to gather some supplies, stock up on a few extra groceries, batteries, etc., that way you are prepared for the possibility of significant winter weather on Monday and/or Tuesday...

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Update on the "Rainy Side" of the Winter Storm System...

Rain will develop and increase across the southern Plains, Deep South, middle Mississippi Valley and Tennesee Valley region in association with the strong surface cold front and upper-level low pressure system that we've been talking about for the past several days.


Light showers are already breaking out in central Texas this morning and will increase in areal coverage and intensity over the weekend:

The latest 5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC is shown below:

...which is in very close agreement with the GFS computer model forecast for the same time period:

As you can see, widespread heavy rainfall of 4-6 inches, with locally heavier amounts, are forecast across a swath extending from northeast Texas across Arkansas and into the middle Mississippi Valley region.

Here is how the rainfall is forecast to break-out by day:

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday-Tuesday

While it is certainly good news to see additional rains across Texas, for example, the severe drought continues.  As has been the case so far this fall and winter, the heaviest of the rain will take place outside of the most severely drought stricken regions (with the exception of far northeast Texas) as you can see on the map below:

Unfortunately, this trend is likely to continue under the La Nina type pattern that we're in...but at least we can hopefully get some periods of even light to moderate rain from time to time to prevent the drought from becoming even worse than it already is.

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Update on Winter Storm for the Rockies and the Plains...

The latest water vapor satellite image above shows an upper-level low pressure center swirling over the Southwest.  I've noted the location of stronger middle and upper-level jet stream winds associated with the system in yellow.  These stronger winds aloft will gradually spread Eastward over time and cause pieces of energy to break away from the upper-level low and move Northeastward across portions of the southern and central Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

East to Southeast winds are pulling moisture back into central and southeast Texas, as you can see by the latest radar image below.  Light, showery precipitation has broken out in association with the moisture feed over the central third of the state:

A variety of winter weather watches, warnings and advisories are in effect across much of the middle third of the country, as shown on the image below:

The first region to be impacted will be the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains tonight and early Saturday.  Locally heavy snows of 8-12 inches will fall across portions of New Mexico and Colorado, as indicated on the image below, which is valid 6am CST (5am MST) on Saturday morning:

Strong, gusty North winds will create widespread blowing and drifting snow across this region, with travel highly discouraged tonight and into Saturday.

Another round of snow is likely across much of the same region by late Sunday and into Monday.  We'll have more on that in later posts...

Further East along the High Plains, freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain is forecast to break out across far eastern New Mexico, far west-central Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region by tonight.  The potential exists for one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of ice accumulation within the dark green shaded areas on the image below, which is also valid at 6am CST Saturday:

Roads will become very hazardous tonight into early Saturday across this region.  Also, any locally heavy accmulations of one-quarter inch or more could cause damage to tree limbs and power lines.  Please make preparations to have some extra food and supplies on hand today just in case a power outage were to threaten your area tonight or Saturday.

During the day Saturday, snow will develop and increase in a band from northwest Kansas and east-central Colorado into much of southern and eastern Nebraska and into northwestern and west-central Iowa.  Locally heavy snow of 8-10 inches or more is possible in this region, particularly within the lighter green and orange shaded areas on the image below, which is valid 6pm CST on Saturday evening:

Strong and gusty North winds will create widespread blowing and drifting snow in this region as well, which will create very hazardous conditions.

The snow will then spread Northeastward into northeastern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin on Saturday night and early Sunday.

Colder than normal temperatures will cover the majority of the lower 48 U.S. next week in the wake of this system, as shown on the latest departure from normal temperature forecast image shown below:

The combination of already cold air with clearing skies and snowcover on the ground could lead to temperatures at or below zero across portions of the region next week, as shown by the darker purple shaded areas on the minimum 5 day temperature forecast image below:

The coldest temperatures would most likely take place on the morning(s) of the 5th and/or 6th (Monday and Tuesday of next week).

Folks living all across the above mentioned areas should have their winter weather preparations complete today.  Listen to local media or NOAA Weather Radio for later updates, watches and warnings for your specific area.

We are also monitoring the end of the weekend/early next week for another round of winter weather, possibly further South into Oklahoma and Texas.  Stay tuned for updates on this one...

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Update on Impending Winter Storm...

In a post earlier today I mentioned the threat of freezing rain/icing conditions across portions of eastern New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and southwest Kansas on Friday  night and early Saturday.  Freezing Rain Advisories, Winter Storm Watches and/or Warnings have since been issued for these and adjacent areas, as shown on the image above.  I would expect winter weather watches/warnings/advisories to be expanded Northeastward across additional portions of Nebraska and Iowa on Friday, valid for the upcoming weekend snow event.

There has not been a significant change in the forecast trends since my last update.  The latest SREF model forecast ice accumulation valid 6am CST Saturday is shown below:

The darker green shaded area on the image represents the model's forecast of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of ice accumulation on Friday night.  This will lead to very hazardous travel conditions, as well as the possibility of downed tree limbs and power lines across the indicated area.  Strong and gusty winds will further aggravate the tree and power line threat.

Meanwhile, on the snowy side of the system, the latest GFS computer model forecast for accumulated snowfall through 6am CST on Sunday is shown below:

As you can see, widespread 6-8 inch (with locally higher) snowfall amounts continue to be indicated from portions of northwest and northcentral Kansas into southeast Nebraska, as well as portions of the northwestern half of Iowa.  Strong and gusty North-Northeast winds will produce widespread blowing and drifting snow in many areas across this region.  Travel and other outdoor activities are highly discouraged.

Folks living across the winter storm forecast areas should listen for the latest updated forecasts and warnings for this weekend.  Stock up on needed supplies now and be prepared to hunker down this weekend if dangerous winter weather conditions affect your area.

On the rainy side of the storm, widespread locally heavy rainfall is forecast from northeast Texas across the middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region Friday through Monday.  The cumulative rainfall forecast from the GFS computer model is shown below, valid for the period Friday through 1pm CST Monday:

The threat of heavy rainfall will spread up into the remainder of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region through the middle of next week.

In the wake of the cold front accompanying this system, cold air will dominate much of the nation over the next week to 10 days.  The latest GFS 8-day temperature anomaly forecast is shown below:

This next image from the same model shows its forecast of the lowest temperatures that will occur across the nation over the next 5 days.  Single digits are indicated in the purple shaded areas across much of the northcentral and portions of the central Plains, with readings forecast to approach zero in the darker purple shaded areas from northwest Kansas into portions of Iowa and Wisconsin:

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Stay tuned for updates as this situation continues to unfold...

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Quick Update on Weekend Winter Storm...

I just wanted to post a quick update on recent trends with respect to the weekend storm system in the Plains and southern Rockies. I'll make a more detailed update later today...


In general, the main swath of heavier snow still looks as if it will be laid out (East of the mountains) from the northeast corner of New Mexico into the northeast corner of Iowa and on into Wisconsin, as shown on the cumulative snow depth forecast from the GFS computer model, valid 6am CST on Sunday (scale in inches on the right):

The main thing I wanted to update at this time concerns the potential for icing.  It looks like the incoming cold air will deepen rapidly enough in the central and northern portions of the affected region to prevent significant icing, as precipitation will change to snow rather rapidly in those areas.

Further South, the models continue to hint at the potential for a period of icing on Friday night from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas, including portions of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region.  This "hint" has become consistent enough to warrant a specific mention across this particular region.  The image below is from the SREF model (a computer forecast model that focuses specifically on short range weather trends), and is valid at 3am CST on Saturday morning:

The darker green shaded area on the image represents where the model is forecasting the potential for the accumulation of one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of ice by that time.  By 6am CST on Saturday, the threat is forecast to move Northeast into southwestern Kansas, as shown on the image below:

At the moment, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the specific amount of ice that is being forecast by the model, but rather the area where the event is forecast to take place.  Folks within and near the green shaded areas on the 2 images above should be prepared for the possibility of ice that could accumulate and cause travel disruptions, as well as a potential hazard to trees and power lines if enough ice is able to accumulate.  This would generally take place during the period Friday night and early Saturday morning.

We'll likely be able to become more specific as to the magnitude of this potential icing event later today and/or tomorrow morning... so stay tuned for updates on this situation.

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