Friday, October 22, 2010

First Significant Cold Front of the Season Still in the Cards

The GFS Model continues to show a cold front blasting southward into the Plains by mid-week next week, reaching the Red River Valley in Oklahoma by 7pm CDT on Wednesday the 27th.  Here is the latest run of the model below, valid at 7pm CDT on 10-27-10:

In keeping with the experiment we outlined on Tuesday, here is what the model forecast for the same date and time was on Monday (5 full runs ago):

As you can see in the latest comparison, the GFS Model still shows the cold front making it to the Red River, but with much less intensity than on the initial run on Monday (and subsequent runs for that matter).  It also shows the corresponding upper-level weather disturbance as less intense as well. 

Since the weakening trend is a departure from the last several runs of the model, we would want to use caution and monitor the next couple of runs for continuity before changing the forecast.

Regardless of how the exact details work out, it still looks like an active weather pattern is in store for next week across much of the nation...

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