Thursday, October 21, 2010

GFS Agrees With Itself Again...

In a post yesterday, I noted that the GFS Model had backed-off a bit on the cold air invasion that it had been predicting for portions of the central & southern Plains for the 2nd half of next week.  But remember I also remarked that, compared to previous runs of the same forecast model for the same valid date and time, this was a departure from what had been an established trend in the forecast (see also my remarks about "continuity" in the forecast models toward the end of this post from Monday).

Well, what do you know... when I pulled the latest GFS Model forecast for the same valid date and time (7pm CDT Wednesday, 10-27-10) this morning, it had reverted back to the prior trend of showing cold air advancing as far south as the Red River in Oklahoma by that time.  See the latest model image I'm speaking of below:

As a reminder, here is what the same model had forecast for the same valid date and time, 7pm CDT Wednesday, 10-27-10, just 4 days ago (on Monday):

So, as you can see, the GFS Model has come back in line, and for 3 of the last 4 runs has continued to forecast the same result, as shown above.  If we follow the continuity theory that we've been speaking of this week, it would be reasonably safe to assume that there is a good chance of the above scenario playing out across the region next week.

Regardless of the exact details as to how this will play out, it is still very obvious that much of the nation is instore for a much more stormy, cooler to colder weather pattern for the last week of October...

Stay tuned!

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