Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Long Range Update

In my post yesterday, I pointed out how a major pattern change would begin this week, continuing into the last week of the month and 1st week of November.  I used, in part, the 240 hour forecast from the GFS Model as a basis for this prediction.  I thought it would be interesting to post a comparison each morning this week to see how the computer model forecast changes/evolves for the same valid date and time.

Since yesterday's long-range point of reference was the forecast valid at 7pm Wednesday, 10-27-10, we'll continue to use that in our comparison this week.

First, here is what the GFS Model was forecasting yesterday.  Again, remember, the valid time of this prediction is 7pm Wednesday, 10-27-10:

Now, here is what the same forecast model is forecasting 24-hours later, for the same valid time of 7pm CDT Wednesday, 10-27-10:

As you can see, this particular computer model is still forecasting a strong surge of cold air blasting southward through the Plains during the 2nd half of next week.  The strong upper-level low over the Southwest U.S. is also still depicted as in the previous model run.

If anything, this latest run of the computer model is forecasting the cold front to be a little further south than in the previous run, near the Red River between Texas/Oklahoma by 7pm on Wednesday the 27th.

This is something we look for in meteorology called "continuity" with respect to the models.  Basically, when each new run of the forecast model generally continues to come up with the same conclusion for the same general area and/or period of time, you can assume that the liklihood of the event(s) actually happening is higher.

We'll continue to post the subsequent GFS Model runs for the same valid time throughout the week and see if this trend continues.  For now, it certainly is safe to say that our prediction yesterday of a colder, more active end to October is certainly on track...

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