Significant Hail and Tornado Threat Again Today in Oklahoma - Adjacent Areas...

As the saying goes, "there's no rest for the weary" and that will certainly be the case again today I'm afraid for our friends in  Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southern Missouri.

The latest severe weather outlook for today is shown above, and the reddish/orange shaded area shows a significant threat of severe weather, including the potential for strong and/or long track tornadoes and hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter.

The most pronounced threat of severe weather includes the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Joplin, Springfield and Fayetteville (much the same areas as yesterday).

Activity will develop and/or intensify by mid to late afternoon and continue into the evening, so please pay attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans across the region.

Please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, even at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Significant - But Not Widespread - Severe Weather Threat Again Today...

There is a threat of significant severe weather across the Plains again today, within the red shaded area on the image above.  By significant, I am indicating that the potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes in this area.  

This threat includes the cities of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita Falls, Wichita, Emporia, Chanute, Joplin, Springfield, Fayetteville and Ft. Smith.

I noted in the headline that the threat would not be widespread, as the activity today is more likely to be isolated to scattered in coverage within the "significant" severe weather threat area.  While that may sound good from a coverage standpoint, those of you who live in the area know that it is bad news from a severe potential standpoint, as isolated, supercell storms are the ones that produce the most significant tornadoes and severe weather.

For that reason, please be on the alert in this area from mid to late afternoon into the evening hours especially.

I'll try and provide another update at midday or early afternoon once the situation begins to unfold.  Folks on the Western edge of the risk area would be impacted first, with the activity then spreading East/Northeastward over time.  It is much easier to post an update on facebook and/or twitter, so if you're interested in receiving more frequent updates, please be sure to follow me there if you haven't already.

If you live anywhere within the severe weather outlook areas for today and tonight, please be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Several Significant Severe Weather Events Likely Today...

We are likely to see several significant severe weather events across the Plains and Midwest today into early tonight.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large to very large hail, and the potential for very damaging straight line wind gusts over a fairly large geographic area.

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today.  The highest potential for very large hail, tornadoes and potentially very damaging winds will exist within the reddish/orange shaded area, including the cities of Amarillo, Lawton, Woodward, Enid, Pratt, Great Bend and Colby.  Some of this threat could extend East as far as the I-35 corridor in the OKC Metro area late this evening or early tonight.

The potential exists for hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and strong and/or long track tornadoes within the red/orange shaded area, so please pay particular attention to the weather in this region this afternoon through early tonight.

Otherwise, scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible across the remainder of the outlook area, especially within the yellow and green shaded areas.  A few tornadoes are also possible with severe storms in these areas, especially with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized.

Locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across much of the same region today and tonight, with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible in areas with repeat thunderstorm activity:

If you live across the severe weather threat areas for today, please be alert, especially from mid to late afternoon through this evening and early tonight.  Be sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, event at night after you go to bed.  Also, make sure that you've identified your best sheltering option at home, work or school so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

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Keep an Eye to the Sky This Week for Severe Weather Threats...

If you've been monitoring the severe weather outlook pages (2nd link on the right hand navigation menu here on the blog homepage) for the last few days, you've no doubt noticed an increase in the severe weather threat for the coming week, beginning today.

The latest outlooks for the next four days are shown below:

If you live in these areas, and especially within the green and/or red shaded areas, please pay particular attention to the weather, especially during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

Large hail, damaging winds and an increasing risk of tornadoes will be associated with the severe weather threat each day.

With lots of outdoor holiday plans in place for today across the Plains, make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings no matter where you're at, and take a few moments to identify your best sheltering option, especially if you're in an unfamiliar place.

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The Tornado Chronicles: Moore, OK Tornado of 5-20-13...

As you know by now, a devastating tornado struck the Moore, OK area late during the afternoon hours of May 20, 2013.  This is the same community that was hit hard by violent tornadoes back in 1999 and again in 2003.

Here are some videos of the tornado that have emerged on YouTube:

The next one is definitely from the "do not try this at home" department, but is very revealing as to the power of this tornado:

Notice how the videographer jumped back into his/her vehicle toward the end?  Not a good idea.  Just ask the owner of this truck (one of countless photos of completely destroyed vehicles):

There is one video that I cannot embed, but you can go to this link and view it.  It shows a family shooting video out of the top of their storm shelter as the tornado passed very close by in Moore.  Once again, I must interject that it is not a good idea to do this.  The shelter door should have been closed, as debris could have easily fallen inside, hurting or even killing someone.

Incoming images of the damage are devastating - and remind me of the destruction that I witnessed first hand when surveying the EF-5 damage in Joplin, MO:

As of this writing, 51 people are reported dead, 20 of which are said to be children.  Unfortunately, based on the degree of damage and the number of people reported as missing, those numbers will probably climb.  Our thoughts and prayers are certainly with the folks in this region.  

As a professional meteorologist charged with warning people in the path of severe weather, I am heartbroken at the death toll here, particularly among the elementary aged children that took shelter the only way they knew how - crouched down in the hallways of their schools.  The unfortunate truth is that in an EF-4 or EF-5 tornado situation, unless you are underground, there is no sure guarantee of survival.

The following YouTube video is an excellent illustration of the above statement.  Just watch as this man emerges from his family's storm shelter to find that everything above them had been wiped completely away:

No doubt, his family would have perished, or would have been seriously injured, had they not been in a below ground shelter.

I can't get over how similar the scene looks to when I stepped out of the car in Joplin, MO 3 years ago.  This video captures it quite well:

EF-4 damage is widespread, and I believe that evidence of EF-5 damage also exists.  **Update:  as of late afternoon 5/21/13, the National Weather Service survey team has rated the tornado EF-5 intensity.

Below is a map that shows the preliminary track of 5-20-13 compared to the last two major tornadoes in the same area:

Google has also released a street level map and current satellite view of the hardest hit area.  First, a wide shot showing the overall track map with the satellite view embedded over Moore (click on map to enlarge):

...and then a tight zoom on that satellite view.  Note the damage swath (brown swath of dirt vs. the more lush, green surrounding area):

On each image, the colored triangles note the corresponding EF-intensity damage in that area (blue, green, yellow, gold, red, purple represents EF-0 through EF-5 damage, respectively).

If we take an even closer look at the satellite view around the Briarwood Elementary School (where the EF-5 damage took place), you can see very clear evidence that the tornado was "multiple-vortex" at that stage, and that it produced several "suction vortices" (click to enlarge):

I have highlighted some of the more obvious multiple vortex tracks in yellow on the same image below, and circled some of the more obvious suction vortex marks in white (click to enlarge):

Multiple vortex, as the name implies, indicates that there was more than one circulation (often called "mini-tornadoes") spinning around inside of the primary circulation.  A suction vortex is noted where the tornado "sucks up" a significant portion of the earth at that location.  Grass, even asphalt and concrete are usually removed, and the bark will be stripped off of trees nearby as well.

This is a fluid post.  If you have an interest in this event, please bookmark the post and check back for updates as more information becomes available throughout the next couple of days...

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America Isn't the Only Place with Tornado Troubles this Week...

The above tornado, apparently strong, was captured on video in the Tula Region of Russia earlier today (U.S. time).  As of this writing I do not have information on casualties.

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Severe Weather Threat Shifts Southward Into Texas / Lower MS Valley Today...

As expected, the threat of severe weather is shifting Southward today, including a large part of the most heavily populated portion of Texas, as indicated in red on the above image.  

While some severe threat may develop as early as this morning across far northern Texas, the bulk of the severe threat is forecast to develop and/or increase from mid to late afternoon in to this evening.

Below are radar simulations as forecast by the high resolution NAM computer 

model, valid at 1pm and 4pm CDT today, respectively:

While its important not to take the forecast storm positions literally, this does give you a good idea as to where the bulk of the activity will be located at their respective times.

My main concern for the DFW Metroplex area (other than the severe weather threat itself) is the timing, which will be coincident or very near school release times across the area.  

As we move forward into this evening, the threat of severe weather will progress Eastward and Southward, including the Austin/San Antonio corridor along I-35 by late evening.  Below are the forecast radar images valid at 7pm and 10pm CDT, respectively:

Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with all severe storms across Texas today, as well as within much of the red shaded area on the severe weather outlook image at the top of the post.

One or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, again primarily within the red shaded area on the outlook map at the top of the post.  This threat includes the cities of Dallas/Ft. Worth, Waco, Temple, Austin, Shreveport and Texarkana.

Elsewhere throughout the severe weather outlook areas for today, large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, with a few isolated tornadoes possible.

Please pay close attention to the weather if you live, work or have travel plans within the severe weather threat areas for today.  Make sure to identify your best sheltering option, and listen for later updates and warnings.

As the severe weather threat for today is now moving into the heart of our primary client base for WeatherGuidance, I may not be able to post many updates later today.  If I do, it will most likely be on facebook and/or twitter, so please follow me there if you aren't already...

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Tornado Watches In Effect Until 10pm...

...for southeast Kansas, western Missouri and a large part of central and eastern Oklahoma.  The extreme Northwest corner of Texas, in the Wichtia Falls area, is also included:

Very large hail (baseball size or larger) will be distinct possibility with thunderstorms that form within this area this afternoon and evening.  Tornadoes are also likely with the most organized storms, and one or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible.

The watch areas include Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Springfield, Kansas City (although the threat there will only be for the next couple of hours), and the Columbia/Jefferson City area.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the Western edge of the watches during the next 1-2 hours, and move Northeast.  The activity will likely congeal into one or more lines or clusters of storms toward sunset, which could threaten locations to the East of the current watch areas late this evening and into early tonight.  Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat by that time.

The most dangerous time today will be from 45-60 minutes after any storm develops and matures, through about an hour or so after sunset.  Similar to yesterday, we are likely to see one or more strong, long track tornadoes with these storms, before they begin consolidating into lines or clusters.  Keep a very close eye on the cells that become well organized and remain relatively isolated from the rest of the activity.

Please make sure that you have identified your best sheltering option at home, work, school or recreational locations and be ready to move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Significant Severe Weather Likely Again Today - Including Much of Oklahoma...

Severe weather is likely again today, unfortunately in much the same area as yesterday (especially with regard to Oklahoma and southwest Missouri).  

Some of the storms could produce very large hail and one or two strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially within the reddish-orange shaded area on the above image.

The primary threat will exist from mid to late afternoon into this evening.

Please pay very close attention to the weather in these areas today...and check back here for a more detailed update around midday.

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Severe Weather About to Get Underway in the Plains...

Above are Tornado Watches that have gone into effect within the last hour.  Expiration times are noted in white inside of each watch box.  Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with any storm that forms in these areas, and strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible, especially in the Oklahoma and eastern Kansas watch areas.

Already, one storm is strengthening rapidly right out of the box, almost half way between Anthony and Wichita, KS.  

This storm bears watching and is moving in the general direction of Wichita.

I will post as many pertinent updates as I can this afternoon, but most likely on Facebook and/or Twitter rather than here on the blog (as I can get the word out much faster that way), so please follow me there if you haven't already...and most of all, stay safe!

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The Tornado Chronicles: Rozel, KS Tornado of 5-18-13...

One of the most picturesque tornadoes that took place yesterday was near Rozel, KS, a tiny farm community in the west-central part of the state.  The photo above was taken by Shalyn Phillips, and is one of the best "stovepipe" tornado photos that I've seen in a long time.

There are also a couple of impressive videos of the Rozel tornado that have emerged on YouTube.  Caution: I  have not 100% vetted these for language, but I think they're pretty safe:

The "nice" thing about yesterday's activity, with respect to tornadoes, is that it largely took place in extremely rural areas, with less than 1 home per square mile in most cases (sometimes 0 per square mile).  I have not heard of any confirmed injuries or deaths, which is always a plus.

"Back in the day" when I would chase on a regular basis, I always much preferred to photograph or videotape a huge tornado out in the "middle of nowhere" vs. in a populated area, and I know most chasers today feel the same (if not, they should be ashamed of themselves).

Unfortunately, the tornado risk today, some of which is significant, has shifted Eastward into a much more heavily populated area (in excess of 7,000,000 within the highest tornado threat area).  You can see my earlier post for details.

Please be sure to pay attention to the weather in the Plains and Midwest today and again on Monday.  We'd love to see your photos and videos, but only from a safe distance and with no threat to your life.

If you have an interest in the Rozel, KS area tornadoes of 5-18-13, please bookmark this post and check back for forthcoming updates...

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