NWS/NHC "Modifies" Hurricane Warning Requirements in Wake of Sandy...

A spokesman for the National Weather Service's (NWS) National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that the requirements for the issuance of a Hurricane Warning will be modified effective next season.  

According to Chris Landsea of the NHC, the definition of a Hurricane Warning will be revised to read as follows:

An announcement that sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected somewhere within the specified area in association with a tropical, sub-tropical, or post-tropical cyclone. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

Note that the system in question may now be "sub-tropical or post-tropical" and still qualify for a Hurricane Warning.  You probably recall that the NWS/NHC had forecast Sandy to become a non-tropical system before making landfall, which is the reasoning they cited behind the decision not to issue hurricane warnings ahead of that devastating system.

In the opinion of myself and many others in the meteorological community, Sandy was still a tropical system, and specifically a hurricane, at landfall, but that is neither here nor there for purposes of this particular article.

Landsea went on to say that "Sandy was not ideal, and the way we handled it was not right.  But we're fixing it."

It is highly unusual for the NWS to make such a move so quickly following an event.  I firmly believe this action is a sign of two things:  (1). an immediate response to the heat that they've been under for the last few weeks regarding some aspects of how the situation with Sandy was handled and (2). a fear of what may be revealed and/or presented during the upcoming review by an internal assessment team charged with making "recommendations" as to how better handle such a situation in the future.

Much controversy still surrounds the formation and execution of the assessment team, especially with regard to whether or not the government can be expected to be "independent and objective" when reviewing itself.  I steadfastly maintain that a fair, objective, independent review will not be able to take place as long as the government is in charge of "assessing" itself.

Today's announcement by Landsea was made at the headquarters of AccuWeather, a Vice President of which (Mike Smith) was to have co-chaired the original Hurricane Sandy Assessment Team.

Putting all of the various Sandy controversies aside, this is generally a good move that will allow the appropriate warnings to be issued in the future and should decrease confusion among the general public and those responsible for taking action to keep communities safe in this type of situation.  I still feel that storm surge needs to be addressed more clearly as well, and the NHC has promised that such a review is underway with a formal action plan to be detailed prior to next season.

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Assessment of Hurricane Sandy Performance Back On - But With ZERO Independence...

According to a recent post on the Capital Weather Gang's blog, NOAA announced this afternoon that the assessment of how the National Weather Service (NWS) performed during the Hurricane Sandy event is back on, after being abruptly cancelled on November 15th.   Here is an excerpt of NOAA's statement from the blog post:

One of the most promising aspects of the original service assessment team was that for the first time it would have heavily involved members of the private sector as well as social scientists and other experts - not just members of the same government agencies that were responsible for issuing watches and warnings during the event.

I call your attention to the last line of today's statement, which suggests that non-government participation will be sorely lacking in the new assessment:

How unfortunate.

To be clear, I was in no way involved with the assembly of the original assessment team (I have received e-mail inquiries regarding that possibility based on my response to the suspension of the original group).  As a result, I harbor no "sour grapes" as to whether or not outside or private sector individuals should be involved in the process.

My frustration comes from being a meteorologist concerned with how public and commercial concerns react to an impending severe weather threat such as Sandy, and improving future forecast and warning products based on past experiences (including mistakes, which I clearly believe were made in this particular case).  Until we involve key members of the media, emergency management, social media experts, social scientists and private sector individuals in the assessment of these major events, I feel that we will potentially continue to let the public and other end users down in these situations.

Putting my concerns aside, NOAA's decision to proceed with the assessment without the involvement of individuals from outside of the government appears to show a lack of concern with point 6 of U.S. Rep. Paul Broun's letter to the Administrator of the agency, issued on November 20th:

It certainly appears that Rep. Broun was concerned that the new assessment team would remain "independent", as was promised by the assembly of the first team.  Unfortunately, it appears as though that won't be the case this time around.

I wonder what kind of response we can expect from Rep. Broun and his committee?  Will they accept NOAA's actions or demand that some level of independence be restored to the "official" examination of this historic weather event?

For now anyway, it appears as though the fox will continue to guard the hen house when it comes to reviewing government performance during extreme weather events in the U.S.

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Comparing the Impacts of Hurricane Sandy to Hurricane Katrina...

Lately I've been hearing lots of folks talk about whether or not Sandy had a greater "impact" than Katrina.  If we look solely at the human toll (with regard to the loss of life), I don't think anyone can argue against the fact that Katrina was far worse than Sandy.  

With that said, and certainly with all due respect and condolences to those who lost friends, loved ones and family members in both events, if we take a look at the "bigger picture" across several types of impacts, Sandy starts to jump right up there in comparison - and not all of the numbers are in yet, either.

A blog post in today's New York Times "City Room" took a look at some of the other major impacts associated with both events:

You can read the full post on the Times blog for more details, as well as the ability to drill down for more information on each of the hyperlinks in the table shown above.

Naturally, with the extremely dense population that was directly impacted by Sandy compared to that of Katrina, the economic and other social impacts were tremendous, and likely unprecedented in modern history.  I noted that the New York Times did not include any reference to the transportation infrastructure (i.e., subways, tunnels, etc.) in their comparison, and that aspect alone puts several notches in Sandy's belt compared to Katrina, especially given the tremendous impact due to the higher population. 

As they point out in the article, this is a highly preliminary look at the situation (with respect to Sandy), as several statistics are still being calculated, and will be for months to come.  

For the record, I strongly disagree with point 1 on the table.  I have been presented with zero compelling evidence (other than unsubstantiated claims from the National Weather Service) that Sandy was "post-tropical" (i.e., not a hurricane) at landfall.

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NWS "Postpones" Its Assessment of Hurricane Sandy: Politics, Red Tape or All of the Above?

The weather faction of the social media world went abuzz today when it was announced that the team charged with examining the National Weather Service's (NWS) performance during Hurricane Sandy was told that the project was "terminated, effective immediately..."

In a post on his blog, Mike Smith (the co-chair of the team) said that he received an e-mail from NWS Headquarters this morning stating that the assessment team had been terminated "effective immediately":

Smith went on to say that the e-mail suggested that a "larger, multi-agency review of this event may take place...", however no details were immediately provided.

I sent an e-mail to NOAA Public Affairs, seeking an "official statement" and/or news release concerning the situation, and received the following reply:

The NWS's reply naturally begged a follow-up question regarding the expected timeline and what agencies would be involved in a "broader federal assessment of the government's preparation and response to Sandy", to which I received this reply: 

I find it very hard to believe that a "multi-agency" assessment of the handling of Sandy by the federal government would be complete in as little as 6 months - especially when they haven't even decided who will be participating in that assessment.

For the record and before I go further, the original subject line of my e-mails to the NWS read "Hurricane Sandy Assessment Team", as shown below:

Referring back to the replies from the NWS, you can see that they deleted the reference to "hurricane" and retyped the subject line as simply "Sandy assessment".  Why that may be important will be addressed shortly...

So, what's the big deal with the assessment being cancelled, (or postponed as indicated in the NWS's 2nd response) you ask?  Well, there are several issues at play here, many of which revolve around politics, I believe.

Myself and several others in the meteorological community believe that a significant portion of the Hurricane Sandy event was mishandled insofar as the technical classification and resulting weather warnings (or lack thereof) were concerned leading up to the landfall of the system.

Over the weekend prior to Sandy's landfall, the NWS's National Hurricane Center (NHC) stated that Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Warnings would not be extended Northward along the U.S. coast beyond North Carolina because of their belief that Sandy would become "extra-tropical" (in other words, not a warm core, tropical system) before making landfall.  As a result of that decision, they passed the responsibility of issuing watch and warning products (of a non-tropical nature) to the local NWS offices in the path of the system.

I have maintained all along that this was a tragic mistake.  I firmly believe that this decision is what lead, at least in part, to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg waiting too long to order an evacuation of the areas at greatest risk.  In a press conference held on the Saturday (2 days) before the storm hit, the mayor practically blew-off the situation, saying, in part, that it would not be as bad as Irene was last year and that folks should go on about their business as they normally would:

Like it or not, we live in an always on, always connected society.  When a highly visible public official makes a dangerously uninformed statement such as the one in the video above (regardless of the original source or reasoning), the results can be devastating, and I believe that is exactly what took place in the case of Sandy.

Some in the meteorological community contend that arguing whether or not Sandy was a hurricane as it approached and made landfall is purely a futile exhibition of "semantics".  I disagree.  First, I am of the opinion that Sandy was a warm core, tropical system (and specifically, a hurricane) as the center approached the New Jersey coast.  Second, whether we like it or not, psychology and, yes, semantics, play an extremely important role insofar as how seriously the "public at large" will react to an approaching severe weather situation.  

Instead of having Hurricane Warnings in place along the coast well in advance for the impacted areas, we were given the relatively sporadic issuance of a combination of high wind watches or warnings and coastal flood watches or warnings, among a myriad of other advisory products.  To add further complexity to the situation, instead of having one national center (like the NHC) issuing the advisories, we were sprung into a situation where numerous local offices were expected to coordinate the effort, which is impractical to say the least in a situation such as this.

Flooded Underpass in Battery Park (The Atlantic)

Make no mistake, I'm not saying that Sandy was "unexpected" or poorly forecast (although some outlets did call for the system to move out to sea and away from the area for several days before they finally reversed course).   In general, this was a well forecast event.  This very blog started talking about the likely impact of this system on the Northeast over 1 week in advance of its impact.  With that said, in my opinion, the fact that a formal Hurricane Warning was never issued for the coasts of New York or New Jersey resulted in some people taking the situation less seriously and failing to act as they otherwise might have.

Ambulances line up at NYU Medical Center

to Remove Patients After Power Failed (AP)

All of this brings us back to the sudden cancellation or "postponement" of the NWS's service assessment today.  Are there folks in the local, state and even the federal government that are afraid of what the full truth of this matter may reveal?  Sure there are.  After all, re-elections are at stake here.  Is that the reason that the assessment was "terminated" (or postponed as it was described in the 2nd e-mail reply that I received today), or is this just another example of government red tape run amok?  We may never know, but we're certainly entitled to our opinion on the matter.

Will we ever have an objective assessment of the handling of Hurricane Sandy presented for review?  I honestly don't know.  I do, however, believe that a lot more people will pay a lot more attention to the next tropical system to affect this area next year and in the years to come.  Its just unfortunate that this lesson had to come at such an extremely high cost - and I'm not just talking dollars - I'm talking about the lives that were forever lost and those that were (and continue to be) severely disrupted.

They deserve better next time.

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Sandy's Fallout Continues: Gas Rationing, Hospital Shortage In NYC...

By now you've probably heard the news, gas will be rationed in NYC and on Long Island effective 6am EST tomorrow.   If your license plate ends in an odd number, you can buy gas (if you can find it) on odd numbered days, and those with even numbered license plates can make a purchase on even numbered days.

It's been over a week since Sandy ravaged the region, so what is the cause for the rationing?  There are a few reasons:  Many gas stations are still without power, and/or have other repair issues to take care of as a result of Sandy.  Those who do have power and have been able to re-open can't get fuel brought in from distributors in the region.  

A closed gas pump in the NYC Area (Getty Images)

The main culprit with the latter issue is that a key terminal, the Bayway Refinery in Linden, NJ, was badly damaged by salt water flooding.  That facility, which typically processes 238,000 barrels of oil per day, is still out of service.  Phillips 66, its parent company, estimates that the facility will not come back on line for 2-3 weeks.  Once it does come back on line, it will take awhile to get the fuel flowing at normal levels as well.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg issued the "emergency order" today which instituted the rationing plan effective tomorrow morning.  He said that the plan was an essential stop-gap until refineries and other distribution channels are fully restored.  He said the order will remain in effect "until further notice".

While fuel rationing is certainly undesired and a major inconvenience, there is  another situation unfolding in the region that could prove to be downright dangerous:  a hospital shortage.

Thats right, more than one week after Sandy, some of the largest hospitals in lower Manhattan remain out of service, including NYU's Langone Medical Center, Bellevue Hospital, and the Manhattan Veteran's Affairs Medical Center.

National Guard Troops Assist with Evacuation of Bellevue Hospital (AP Photo)

Most of the hospitals were evacuated on the night that Sandy struck or the following day, as power generators either failed to start due to flooding, or the facilities ran out of fuel to supply them (or a combination of both).  Hundreds of patients remain at other facilities across the region to this day, while others have been released early and sent home to recover.

The basement of Bellevue was inundated with about 17 million gallons of salt water, resulting in damage to everything from power panels to fuel and water pumps, according to city officials.

The closure of Bellevue was a particularly rough blow to Lower Manhattan, as it is the only level one trauma center in the area.  Officials don't have an estimate as to when the facility will re-open.  In the meantime, serious trama patients are being transported to facilities on the Upper East and Upper West sides of the city.

Crews Set Up Outside NYU's Langone Medical Center (AP Photo)

At NYU's Langone Medical Center (shown above on the night that Sandy impacted the region), engineers and operations folks thought they would be able to stay a step ahead of the storm.

After Hurricane Irene struck last year, the facility spent "several million dollars" protecting its backup power system from flooding.  They moved the generators to the roof and built a flood resistant chamber to house the pumps that supply fuel from a sealed underground tank.  One key vulnerability remained, however, in that several major power circuits were still left behind in the basement, which flooded in a similar fashion as Bellevue.

Ironically, NYU was in the process of constructing its own power generation facility at the time this took place.  When the facility is complete, all key circuits will be housed in higher floors of the hospital.  They estimate construction will be finished sometime in 2014.  In the meantime, a hard estimate as to the re-opening date at NYU has not been provided.

The longer these facilities are closed, the more worrisome the situation becomes.  One major fear is that should some local emergency or disaster occur, there won't be enough capacity at other hospitals to handle the additional load.

This is certainly an unprecedented situation in the region, which is what we feared from the beginning.  Many emergency preparedness lessons will be learned from this event, hopefully well before the next one takes place somewhere else.

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A Look at Storm Surge Flooding with the Northeastern System...

As noted in my earlier post, the Nor'Easter is well underway and causing all sorts of problems across much of the same region already hard hit by Hurricane Sandy last week.

The purpose of this post is to focus on the storm surge flooding aspect of today's system, particularly in the areas that continue to be impacted by power outages and other infrastructure problems from Sandy.

Below is the latest water level graph on the coast at Atlantic City, NJ.  The red line is the observed water level at the given time (scale at the bottom), and the black line is the forecast water level.  Flood stage at this gauge is 6 feet, and moderate flooding takes place at 7 feet:

As you can see, flood stage will be reached early this afternoon and again later this evening.  The 7ft. water level will be reached late this evening or early tonight near high tide.  

Similar conditions will take place along the remainder of the Jersey coast.  While a 6-7ft. water level would not normally be a "huge" deal in this area, you have to consider that most sand bars and even portions of barrier islands along the Jersey coast were washed away by Sandy, which allows water to flow into inhabited areas even faster (see before/after photo along the Jersey shore below):

Further to the North, lets take a look at the flood gauge at The Battery in NYC:

Flood stage at that location (as you probably remember from last week) is 6.5 feet, and moderate flooding takes place at 8.0 feet.  The forecast (black line on the graph above) calls for the 6.5 foot level to be reached early this afternoon and then again at high tide late this evening.  The peak water level is currently forecast to be near 7.5 feet at high tide this evening.

While it's obvious that water levels today will be no where near as high as they were in Sandy, any amount of water intrusion and flooding will only add insult to injury across this already hard hit region.

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Hopefully the Northeast is Prepared for Wednesday & Thursday...

The U.S. based GFS model is now jumping on the band wagon and forecasting a storm system which will have significant impacts along the U.S. Northeast coast on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.

The above image is from the GFS model and is valid 7pm EST on Wednesday.  It depicts strong Northeast winds which will be blowing in the red and orange shaded areas on the image, along the coast and interior sections of the Delmarva peninsula, New Jersey, southeastern New York and into New England.  Sustained winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of 55-65 mph are likely in this region, I'm afraid.

While the entire coastline in the aforementioned region will be impacted by coastal flooding due to higher than normal tide levels, the area that will sustain the hardest hit will be along the New Jersey coast.  Unfortunately, this also corresponds to the region where many sand dunes and barrier islands were washed away by Hurricane Sandy last week:

Before (left) and after (right) photo of a barrier island in NJ

Locally heavy rainfall is likely along the coast:

NWS Forecast of Total Rainfall

...and locally heavy inland snows are expected as well:

GFS Model Forecast Maximum Snow Depth

The exact location of the heaviest snowfall, as well as how far East it will extend, is still under consideration at this hour.  The above image is meant to give you an idea as to the most likely locations for heavy snow based on current model output.  We will refine this forecast over the coming days.

Details on this system and its impacts on the region will continue to come into better perspective over the next 1-2 days, so please check back for updates.

If you live across this region and were impacted by Hurricane Sandy, please know that the storm this week won't be nearly as strong, but it will certainly cause additional problems, I'm afraid.  If you don't feel that you will have adequate shelter, electricity and/or natural gas at your home by Wednesday of this week, I'd suggest making arrangements to stay somewhere else until this storm passes.

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Latest Computer Models Still Unfavorable for Northeast Next Week...

I certainly hope that government and commercial officials charged with getting natural gas and electricity flowing across the Northeast again are paying attention to the forecasts with regard to the storm system that is expected to develop next week.

The latest runs of the European (ECMWF) model, as well as the U.S. based GFS model are coming into better agreement that a significant storm is likely across the same areas that were affected by Sandy earlier this week.

Here is the ECMWF model projection valid at 7am EST on Thursday morning (note, I forgot the time change in yesterday's post, so that image was actually valid at 7am EST not 8am EDT as I noted at that time):

The center of the low pressure system is forecast to be in nearly the same spot as it was by the same model on yesterday morning's run, as shown below:

While the location is nearly the same, the main difference is not good - today's run shows the system being even stronger.  We are seeing similar trends with the U.S. based GFS model and the Canadian model.

As I pointed out in my update yesterday, I am very concerned with this system not only due to the widespread, locally heavy precipitation potential that it will hold, but also due to the "storm surge" (i.e., increased water levels at high tide), and strong, gusty surface winds that the system will produce.

Please see yesterday's post for details on why the region is particularly vulnerable to "storm surge" with this system.  While this system will be no where near as strong as Sandy, it won't take much to cause major problems in this already hard hit area.

Municipal and state government agencies as well as utility companies need to rush recovery efforts from Sandy to completion as quickly as possible.  I know that may sound unreasonable, and I'm not an unreasonable person.  What I am referring to is that basic infrastructure (i.e., natural gas, electric power, gas stations, hospitals, etc.) should be back in operation wherever possible.  This includes removing as many compromised trees and/or tree limbs as possible before this next storm has an opportunity to finish the job itself.

There are many people across this region that are now homeless due to Sandy.  Satisfactory arrangements need to be made for these folks before this next storm hits, so that they are not literally left out in the cold (yes, there will be snow with this system, including the possibility of accumulating snows in the "big cities" near the coast).

Tomorrow this storm will be within the 5 day range of impacting the region.  We will be able to become much more precise as to the expected impacts and I will be sure to make a more detailed post at that time.

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Help is Needed in Staten Island. Here's What You Can Do...

Many are asking what they can do to specifically help the very hard hit Staten Island area.  Here is a very thorough article published by the Staten Island Advance online that will give you some ideas.

The only cautionary note that I would like to add concerning the content of the article is the listing of the "Mayor's Fund to Advance the City of New York" hurricane fund as a potential source to donate money.  I personally would not send funds to any person or group associated with the Mayor of New York (I have not been pleased with his handling of this situation from the start), so I am not about to encourage you to do so either.

If you wish to donate money, there are several other options listed within the article.

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Cold Days and Nights Ahead Without Gas and Electricity in Areas Impacted by Sandy...

With electricity and/or gas still out for hundreds of thousands across the Northeast, including nearly 500,000 in New York City, cold overnight temperatures in the 30s and daytime highs in the 40s are not good news, and that's exactly what we'll be seeing across the region for tonight through Wednesday:

Churches and other civic organizations have launched coat drives across the region.  If you are there and able to help, please do so.

Although I am displeased with the slow response the Red Cross initially had in the Staten Island area, they have since come around and I still think they are a good starting point if you want to help from outside the area.  You can visit the Red Cross of Greater New York by going here and the Red Cross of New Jersey here.

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If you are in need of highly customized, site specific weather forecasts and/or storm warnings for your business, school or event, be sure visit my professional webpage at WeatherGuidance.com.