Saturday, November 3, 2012

Latest Computer Models Still Unfavorable for Northeast Next Week...

I certainly hope that government and commercial officials charged with getting natural gas and electricity flowing across the Northeast again are paying attention to the forecasts with regard to the storm system that is expected to develop next week.

The latest runs of the European (ECMWF) model, as well as the U.S. based GFS model are coming into better agreement that a significant storm is likely across the same areas that were affected by Sandy earlier this week.

Here is the ECMWF model projection valid at 7am EST on Thursday morning (note, I forgot the time change in yesterday's post, so that image was actually valid at 7am EST not 8am EDT as I noted at that time):

The center of the low pressure system is forecast to be in nearly the same spot as it was by the same model on yesterday morning's run, as shown below:

While the location is nearly the same, the main difference is not good - today's run shows the system being even stronger.  We are seeing similar trends with the U.S. based GFS model and the Canadian model.

As I pointed out in my update yesterday, I am very concerned with this system not only due to the widespread, locally heavy precipitation potential that it will hold, but also due to the "storm surge" (i.e., increased water levels at high tide), and strong, gusty surface winds that the system will produce.

Please see yesterday's post for details on why the region is particularly vulnerable to "storm surge" with this system.  While this system will be no where near as strong as Sandy, it won't take much to cause major problems in this already hard hit area.

Municipal and state government agencies as well as utility companies need to rush recovery efforts from Sandy to completion as quickly as possible.  I know that may sound unreasonable, and I'm not an unreasonable person.  What I am referring to is that basic infrastructure (i.e., natural gas, electric power, gas stations, hospitals, etc.) should be back in operation wherever possible.  This includes removing as many compromised trees and/or tree limbs as possible before this next storm has an opportunity to finish the job itself.

There are many people across this region that are now homeless due to Sandy.  Satisfactory arrangements need to be made for these folks before this next storm hits, so that they are not literally left out in the cold (yes, there will be snow with this system, including the possibility of accumulating snows in the "big cities" near the coast).

Tomorrow this storm will be within the 5 day range of impacting the region.  We will be able to become much more precise as to the expected impacts and I will be sure to make a more detailed post at that time.

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