Sunday, November 4, 2012

Hopefully the Northeast is Prepared for Wednesday & Thursday...

The U.S. based GFS model is now jumping on the band wagon and forecasting a storm system which will have significant impacts along the U.S. Northeast coast on Wednesday and Thursday of this week.

The above image is from the GFS model and is valid 7pm EST on Wednesday.  It depicts strong Northeast winds which will be blowing in the red and orange shaded areas on the image, along the coast and interior sections of the Delmarva peninsula, New Jersey, southeastern New York and into New England.  Sustained winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of 55-65 mph are likely in this region, I'm afraid.

While the entire coastline in the aforementioned region will be impacted by coastal flooding due to higher than normal tide levels, the area that will sustain the hardest hit will be along the New Jersey coast.  Unfortunately, this also corresponds to the region where many sand dunes and barrier islands were washed away by Hurricane Sandy last week:

Before (left) and after (right) photo of a barrier island in NJ

Locally heavy rainfall is likely along the coast:

NWS Forecast of Total Rainfall

...and locally heavy inland snows are expected as well:

GFS Model Forecast Maximum Snow Depth

The exact location of the heaviest snowfall, as well as how far East it will extend, is still under consideration at this hour.  The above image is meant to give you an idea as to the most likely locations for heavy snow based on current model output.  We will refine this forecast over the coming days.

Details on this system and its impacts on the region will continue to come into better perspective over the next 1-2 days, so please check back for updates.

If you live across this region and were impacted by Hurricane Sandy, please know that the storm this week won't be nearly as strong, but it will certainly cause additional problems, I'm afraid.  If you don't feel that you will have adequate shelter, electricity and/or natural gas at your home by Wednesday of this week, I'd suggest making arrangements to stay somewhere else until this storm passes.

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