Saturday, November 10, 2012

Severe Thunderstorms Expected MO Valley / Central and Southern Plains Later Today...

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for this afternoon and evening from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK.  Severe storms are forecast anywhere within the brown shaded area on the image, with the highest likelihood within the yellow shaded area.

This risk of severe weather includes the cities of Minneapolis/St. Paul, Omaha, Des Moines, Kansas City, Topeka, Wichita, Oklahoma City, Lawton and Wichita Falls.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late afternoon or early evening near the Western edge of the severe weather outlook area.  This is what a high resolution computer forecast model sees happening by around 6pm CST on the northern end:

...and at the same time on the Southern end:

Remember, it's important to keep in mind not to take the above radar forecasts as gospel, but it does give you a good idea as to where thunderstorms are generally expected to have formed by that time.  Once developed, the activity will move and/or progress toward the East/Northeast.

Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and hail are expected to be the primary severe weather threats this afternoon and evening.  There is also a chance for a few tornadoes, especially within the first few hours of thunderstorm development when a few cells are able to remain relatively isolated and become well organized.

The best chance of a tornado is within the brown shaded area on the image below, which includes the Omaha, Lincoln and Grand Island areas in Nebraska, as well as the Great Bend and Pratt areas in Kansas:

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for today and tonight, please remain alert.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings.

A lot of folks in the primary severe weather threat area will be attending college football games or watch parties.  Be sure to identify your best sheltering option, especially when in an unfamiliar place.  That way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

Please also note, especially with the earlier sunset now in Standard Time, much of this severe weather threat will take place after dark.  This can be especially dangerous, so please pay attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans in these areas.

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