Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later today from southcentral and southeast Texas into Louisiana. The highest potential for severe storms will exist within the yellow shaded area on the image above.
A cold front is forecast to move Southeast into the region later today, while a disturbance in the middle and upper-atmosphere moves East into the region from Mexico. The two elements will combine to produce scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, as depicted by the computer forecast model radar image below valid at 6pm CST this evening:
I wouldn't necessarily take the forecast positions of the storms literally, however the model gives you a good idea as to the most likely areas for thunderstorm formation by that time.
While hail and gusty winds near severe limits are expected to be the primary threats today, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out over a relatively concentrated area generally centered on the ArkLaTex region, as indicated by the green shaded area on the image below:
If you live across this region, please remain alert this afternoon and evening. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or a trusted local source for the latest information and possible warnings. Since it's been awhile since severe weather has threatened this region, it might be a good idea to review your severe weather safety plan and identify your best sheltering option at home, work or school.
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