Thursday, December 27, 2012

Major New Year's Snowstorm Appears Likely for the Southern Plains...

If you live in the southern U.S. and didn't get your wish for a white Christmas, you have another opportunity for accumulating snow (possibly heavy) coming up soon!  It appears that a major winter storm system will take shape and impact the region around the New Year's holiday time period early next week...

A vigorous middle and upper-level weather disturbance is currently organizing off of the coast of the Pacific Northwest:

This disturbance will generally move Eastward today and Friday and then take a dive toward the Southeast over the weekend, with the energy forecast to move down into the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico by 6pm CST on Sunday evening:

The system is likely to become well organized by that time, producing heavy snow across the southern Rockies over the weekend, with precipitation spreading East into the adjacent Plains of New Mexico, northwest Texas and western Oklahoma by New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

The European (ECMWF) computer forecast model suite is the most aggressive with snowfall amounts of the major models so far.  Here are its current snowfall projections valid at 6pm CST on Monday: 6pm CST Tuesday:

...and at 6pm CST Wednesday:

As you can see, the model is forecasting the system to slow down considerably, dumping heavy snow across much of the same area for 2-3 days before lifting out to the East next weekend.  The snowfall forecast image below is valid at 6pm CST on Saturday, January 5th and shows locally heavy snow spreading Eastward into Oklahoma and northwest Texas by that time:

On the warm side of the system, beneficial rain is likely to fall across much of central and eastern Texas early next week, with heavy rainfall possible over southeast and east-central Texas by Tuesday:

ECMWF Rainfall Forecast; 24hrs. Ending 6pm CST Monday, 12/31

 ECMWF Rainfall Forecast; 24hrs. Ending 6pm CST Tuesday, 1/1

We obviously still have quite a bit of time to monitor this situation, but if you live or have travel plans into the indicated areas for late this weekend into next week, keep an eye on the weather and check back for the latest updates.  It would also be a good idea to take some time between now and Sunday to stock up on some extra non perishable food and other supplies like batteries, candles and firewood, just in case.

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1 comment:

Belfor Mobile said...

New years snowstorm exactly what we need -_- snow is so much fun... not