Friday, December 21, 2012

Christmas Day Snow Event Appears Likely for the Sooner State, Surrounding Areas...

This will be a relatively brief post as detailed information is not yet available, but I did want to give everyone a heads-up that conditions are appearing more and more favorable for a Christmas Day snow event in Oklahoma and adjacent portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri.

While there is still some disagreement among the major computer models, most are falling in line with the latest run of the GFS, which is forecasting accumulating snow across much of the Northern two-thirds of Oklahoma, into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri on Christmas Day.

The GFS snowfall forecast images below are valid 12 Noon CST on Christmas Day:


...and at 6pm CST on Christmas Day:
 


Keep in mind that there will likely be some fluctuation to the North or South with the primary snow band, but this should give you a pretty good idea of where the most likely area(s) for accumulating snow appear to be taking shape for Christmas Day, which right now includes the Tulsa, Joplin and Fayetteville areas.  The potential for accumulating snow in Oklahoma City and Ft. Smith will depend on exactly how the primary snow band sets up, but at this time I would say that there is a "higher than normal" chance of accumulating snow in this region as well.

A band of mixed precipitation and/or ice may also set-up just to the immediate South of the primary snow band.  Right now the most favorable area for this development appears to be in a band from northwest Texas into southeastern Oklahoma and west-central or southwest Arkansas, but this too could shift as details become more clear over the next few days.

Stay tuned, I'll be providing more detailed updates as the situation becomes more clear over the weekend...


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3 comments:

Leo Driscoll said...

Rob You pretty well nailed this past storm and the artic weather in your forecast around Dec 1st when it was mild everywhere you predicted around or just after Dec 20 the mid section of the country would be hit by a cold outbreak and snow that would last the rest of the month. Good Job ! (Again) What does it look like for Carbondale, IL with this next snow ?

Rob White said...

Leo, thanks for the note, and your kind words, I appreciate it!

The way this next one is trending in the models, one would think that the heavier accumulating snow would be to your South. The trick is, until the surface low actually sets up on Monday and Tuesday, it's anybody's guess.

If I had to place a bet on it, I'd say the heavier snow will be to your South, but stay tuned, there is still a chance that the surface low could establish itself further North than it looks right now...

With that said, don't lose faith. If you're a snow lover, you will have plenty of chances in January the way things look right now...

Angela said...

Wonderfully crisp and always interesting!