Showers and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop over northwest Texas and southcentral New Mexico ahead of an upper-level weather disturbance late this evening.
This disturbance will move East and cause more significant thunderstorm development overnight tonight. The activity will initially form across central and east-central Texas shortly after Midnight, and will then move and/or develop Eastward into west-central Louisiana by daybreak on Christmas Day, as shown in yellow on the severe weather outlook from the SPC below:
Large hail will be the primary threat initially, however the threat of damaging wind gusts and even a tornado will increase toward dawn on Christmas Day.
If you will be in or near the severe weather threat area outlined above overnight tonight, please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings. Especially if you are in an unfamiliar area for the holidays, please make sure to identify your best sheltering option ahead of time so that you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.
As a reminder, the threat of severe weather will shift Eastward and intensify during the day on Christmas Day, with a strong likelihood of significant severe weather within the red and lavender shaded and black hatched area on the image below:
Please pay particular attention to the weather if you live or have travel plans in these areas for Christmas Day. Strong to violent and/or long track tornadoes will be a distinct possibility in this region on Christmas Day.
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