A very moist, increasingly unstable airmass in the low-levels of the atmosphere is flowing Northward from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico into the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley region this morning. The above surface weather map shows surface dew point temperatures in the 60s within the yellow shaded areas, a sign of increasing moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere.
This moisture and instability will interact with an approaching middle and upper-level weather disturbance to produce a threat of severe weather across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley region later today and tonight.
The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK is shown below. Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow and brown shaded areas on the image:
Damaging wind gusts and some hail will be the primary severe weather threats, although a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially within the brown shaded area on the image below over portions of Arkansas:
Perhaps one of the worst aspects of this situation is that the primary threat of severe weather will come after dark this evening and continue to spread East into the Mississippi Valley region overnight tonight and early Thursday.
The latest high resolution NAM computer model data suggests that strong to severe thunderstorm activity will get underway after 10pm this evening from portions of southern Missouri into Arkansas and Louisiana:
...and will spread East into the Mississippi Valley region by dawn on Thursday:
If you live across the severe weather threat area for later this evening and tonight, please remain alert and make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings at night.
The threat of severe weather will continue to progress Eastward on Thursday, encompassing a large portion of the southeastern U.S.:
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