Monday, December 3, 2012

Oklahoma Was Balmy Again Today; Taste of Reality Likely Next Week...

Much of the Sooner State basked in upper 70 to lower 80 degree warmth today, a far cry from what you'd expect on the 3rd of December.

A cool front is passing from Northwest to Southeast across the state at this time, and will bring readings back down to earth a bit for tomorrow, but high temperatures will still be very pleasant, averaging in the 60s in most areas.

As pointed out in a post last Friday, major changes are in the offing for next week and beyond, as several shots of cold air at the surface and increased instability in the middle and upper atmosphere will combine to bring more seasonable conditions to the region.

The first storm system and cold shot is forecast to affect Oklahoma next Monday, or exactly 1 week from today.  Temperatures will average 10 to 20 degrees below normal across most of the state next Monday and Tuesday, with a pocket of values from 20 to 30 degrees below normal across the Northwest corner and the panhandle region:

Computer forecast models are also consistent in depicting a band of moderate to locally heavy snow in association with the cold frontal passage and middle level storm system.  The latest GFS computer model forecast valid 12 Midnight on Monday evening / early Tuesday morning of next week shows a band of locally heavy snow across portions of northcentral and northeastern Oklahoma:

We obviously have several days to pinpoint this situation, and some changes may take place.  The main emphasis for now should be that weather conditions will be much colder and somewhat wetter across the region in about a week, which will shock those who aren't expecting it (especially given the very warm conditions as of late).

The overall large scale weather pattern continues to suggest that this will only be the first of several shots of winter weather for the country for the middle and later portions of December, and likely continuing into January as well.

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