Severe Storm, Tornado Threat in Plains Today...

As expected for the past few days, today appears to be potentially the most significant severe weather day this week (although tomorrow could be quite strong in spots as well).

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today and tonight (click to enlarge the image):

The highest potential for tornadoes and very large (i.e., 2" diameter or larger) hail will likely take place within the reddish-orangish shaded area from northwest Texas through central and northeastern Oklahoma.  This includes the cities of Wichita Falls, Lawton, Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

At this time it appears that storms will fire by mid to late afternoon along the Western edge of the overall severe outlook area, and then move and develop East/Northeast.  The highest tornado potential will take place with isolated storms that are able to become well organized during the first 1-3 hours of development.  After that, the situation will likely translate into primarily a damaging wind event, with a continued threat of hail as well.

Storms will progress East and Southeast into the overnight hours, so please be sure to have a way of receiving weather warnings at night tonight across roughly the Southeastern third of the outlook area, including the Hill Country in southcentral Texas.

By Wednesday, the threat will shift Eastward into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region.  Strong to severe storms will likely be ongoing along the Western edge of the outlook area around dawn tomorrow, progressing Eastward during the day:

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather outlook areas for the next two days, please be sure to stay alert and make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings - no matter what time of day it is or where you might be.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Increasing Severe Weather Threat for Today through Wednesday...

The first day of severe weather has come and gone, with numerous reports of large to very large hail across Kansas and Missouri yesterday.  The above image (via WeatherGuidance Hail Intel®) shows a nearly solid swath of large hail approximately 260 miles long, extending from near Wichita, KS to Lebanon, MO yesterday evening.

Very large hail is on tap again today, along with a higher threat of tornadoes than we saw yesterday.  (What was described as a "brief" tornado was reported near Paradise, KS yesterday evening, causing damage to an old barn).

Today's outlook calls for the highest threat of severe weather, including tornadoes, from western Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma.  Very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter can also be expected in this region during the afternoon and evening hours today:

As I've been pointing out for several days now, tomorrow (Tuesday) appears to carry the highest severe weather threat this week, overall.  The primary threat area for tomorrow will extend from the Dallas/Ft. Worth area across much of central and eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and Western portions of Missouri and Arkansas:

Very large hail, damaging winds and numerous tornadoes are possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  A few of the tornadoes could be strong and/or have a long track.  To make matters worse, it appears as though a significant severe weather risk will extend into the nighttime hours of Tuesday night and pre-dawn Wednesday, so be on the alert in these areas.

The overall severe threat will shift Eastward into Wednesday, encompassing much of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region:

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather outlook areas for the next few days, please be sure to stay alert and make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings - no matter what time of day it is or where you might be.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

A String of Severe Weather Days Begins Today...

Nothing has changed since yesterday's detailed post concerning the upcoming severe weather threat this week.

We start today, with a large hail, damaging wind and isolated tornado threat mainly out over the High Plains of Kansas, western Oklahoma and eastern parts of the panhandle region.

For detailed severe weather outlook maps for the upcoming week, please visit the Severe Weather Headquarters page.  Once you're there, just click on the "Severe Weather Outlook for Today" map at the top of the page and you can then scroll through the next 7 days worth of outlooks.

If you live in the severe weather outlook areas for today, please be sure to stay alert this afternoon and evening, and make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings for your area - no matter what time of day or where you might be.

I'll post another update here on the blog later this afternoon, covering both today as well as the upcoming days...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Updated "Severe Weather Headquarters" Page...

Be sure to check out the all new "Severe Weather Headquarters" page, brought to you by our sister company, WeatherGuidance.  To access it, just click on the severe weather outlook map located on the right hand side of the blog homepage (as shown below):

It includes the latest severe weather outlooks for the next 7 days, an interactive watch, warning and advisory page, as well as interactive weather radar with street level zoom and current warning information!

Watch for additional content to be added over the coming severe weather season.  Often such additions are based on your comments or questions, so be sure to let me know if you're in need of something that isn't there!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Update on Upcoming Severe Weather and Tornado Threats...

Overall, little has changed since my post yesterday, however I did want to update you on a threat of severe weather that may develop as early as tomorrow afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains.

Of the upcoming 4 days of expected severe weather (Sunday through at least Wednesday), the threat for Sunday appears the least (in terms of magnitude) overall, but it will still pose a risk of at least scattered severe storms, especially across portions of Kansas:

The atmosphere will still be "setting up" for the more significant events that are expected Monday through Wednesday, but enough instability should be present by Sunday afternoon and evening to produce scattered strong to severe storms along and ahead of a dryline and to the South of a warm front across the Sunflower State.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.  

By Monday, a more significant severe weather threat will develop, initially across much of the same area as the day before:

As indicated by the reddish-orange shaded area, some "significant" severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.  Such a threat would include very large (i.e., 2" diameter or greater) hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Tuesday continues to be the day that appears to have the highest potential for "significant" severe weather, including tornadoes:

As we discussed yesterday, very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter), damaging thunderstorm winds and tornadoes are likely with severe storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Conditions continue to appear favorable for one or more strong and/or long tracked tornadoes on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  This threat includes the cities of Tulsa, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Fayetteville, Ft. Smith, Joplin and Chanute.

By Wednesday, the threat will shift Eastward into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region:

There continues to be some question concerning how widespread heavy precipitation will be on Wednesday, which could mitigate the severe weather potential somewhat, especially as compared to what is expected on Tuesday.   Otherwise, conditions will be favorable for significant severe weather once again within the reddish-orange shaded areas.  This includes the cities of Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, Baton Rouge and Memphis.

This is a potentially dangerous weather situation that is shaping up, particularly for the period Monday through Wednesday (with special emphasis on Tuesday afternoon and evening).  Please pay attention to the weather if you live in the indicated areas.  Take some time now to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips, and plan where your best sheltering option will be at home, work or school.  Some of the severe weather threat will also take place at night, so make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings during the overnight hours.

We'll continue to monitor this situation with additional updates forthcoming as details become more clear.  In the meantime, feel free to keep track of things on the Severe Weather Homepage of our sister site, WeatherGuidance. Check for new features and updated content that will be added to that page throughout the day today!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Significant Severe Weather, Tornado Event(s) Still Expected Next Week...

All of the ingredients continue to come together in suggesting that one or more days of significant severe weather are likely during the period Monday through Wednesday of next week.

As I mentioned in a post yesterday, the European model and the U.S. based GFS model were in disagreement with respect to the timing of the surface front that will focus severe weather development.  In the last 24 hours, the GFS has slowed the progress of the front considerably (as we suspected it would yesterday) and is now in very close agreement with the European model as to the timing.  I point this out because, unfortunately, it results in an even higher level of confidence as far as the forecast of this major event.

The images below show the severe weather threat areas as forecast for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, respectively.

On Monday, the primary threat will exist along and ahead of a surface dryline extending from the western High Plains of Kansas, western Oklahoma and Eastern portions of the panhandle region of Texas/Oklahoma:

Coverage is expected to be scattered on Monday afternoon and evening, with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible, primarily within the area shaded in green on the image above.

At this time it appears that all ingredients are coming together for a widespread and significant severe weather episode on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The primary threat area is shown in green and reddish-orange on the image below:

Present indications suggest that conditions will be favorable for large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong and/or long tracked on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The highest threat of significant severe weather is indicated within the reddish-orange shaded areas on the above image and includes the cities of Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Joplin, Fayetteville and Ft. Smith.

By Wednesday, the primary threat will have shifted East/Southeastward into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region, as indicated on the image below:

Once again, large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible with severe storms in the indicated areas on Wednesday.  The primary tornado threat will exist within the reddish-orange shaded areas, which includes the cities of Shreveport, Baton Rouge, Little Rock, Memphis and Jackson.

There is some question as to how unstable the atmosphere will be able to become on Wednesday due to forecast widespread precipitation.  This may limit the extent of the "significant" tornado risk as compared to Tuesday, but we still cannot rule out the possibility of a strong tornado on Wednesday.  This threat should become more clear as we approach the event, so please watch for further updates.

Speaking of widespread precipitation, as we pointed out in a post a week or so ago, it appears that fairly widespread, locally heavy rainfall will also occur in association with this system.  The image below shows the European model total rainfall forecast valid through 7pm CDT next Thursday:

As you can see, rainfall amounts in excess of 2-3 inches are forecast on a fairly widespread basis (scale in inches at the right of the image) from the central and southern Plains into the Midwest and middle through lower Mississippi Valley region.  While this is good news for drought stricken areas in Kansas and Oklahoma, it will cause flooding problems in the Mississippi Valley region.

This is a potentially dangerous weather situation that is shaping up for the period Monday through Wednesday of next week, and particularly on Tuesday. Please pay attention to the weather if you live in the indicated areas.  Take some time now to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips, and plan where your best sheltering option will be at home, work or school.  Some of the severe weather threat will also take place at night, so make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings during the overnight hours.

We'll continue to monitor this situation with additional updates forthcoming as details become more clear...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Significant Threat of Severe Storms, Tornadoes Next Week...

While Texas has been pummeled with several severe hail events over the past week, overall, the spring severe weather season has been off to a slow start so far.  That's about to change...

Last week I posted about trends favoring a wet and stormy April, and such a scenario continues to appear likely.  Toward the end of the same post I also mentioned that with an active April would unfortunately come an increased threat of severe weather, and that is indeed what appears to be taking shape for as early as next week.

A threat of severe weather may develop as early as Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains of western Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma, as suggested by the latest severe weather outlook for Monday from the SPC in Norman, OK:

Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes would all be a threat with severe storms that form in the above region on Monday afternoon and evening.  A threat for isolated severe storms will also likely extend Southward into at least western Oklahoma and perhaps parts of northwest Texas.

Of greater concern is the pattern developing into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, which will carry a threat of significant severe weather in portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley regions.

Below is the latest composite forecast output from the European Model (top half of image) and the U.S. based GFS model (bottom half of image) valid Tuesday afternoon (click to enlarge):

As you can see, both models forecast a strong trough of low pressure in the middle amtmosphere (black backround images).  The European model shows a cold front/warm front/dryline intersection across northwest Kansas, with the dryline trailing Southward into West Texas.  The GFS model is faster in moving the cold front, depicting it already Southeastward into Oklahoma and northwest Texas by late Tuesday afternoon.

Since the threat of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening will exist ahead of the cold front and dryline, to the South of the warm front, if we assume a compromise between the two models we would have a pronounced threat extending from southern Kansas across much of Oklahoma and northwest through northcentral Texas, as shown on the image below:

(FYI, I apologize, but when you overlay the red on the green and yellow and make it semi-transparent, it turns orange.  The orange shaded area should be regarded as "Isolated/Scattered Significant Severe" as indicated by the red block on the map's legend).

Keep in mind that if the faster GFS model forecast solution should prevail, then the severe threat would shift toward the central and southern two-thirds of the outlined area, as well as further Southeast across Arkansas and Texas.  At the moment I tend to agree more with the European and/or European/GFS compromise solution as far as the timing goes, which would be in close proximity to the severe weather outlook map above.

Model differences in the exact geographic location of the threat aside, the potential exists for significant severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening.  This would include very large hail (i.e., greater than 2 inches diameter), damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong and/or long tracked.

By Wednesday, both models forecast the threat of severe weather spreading East/Southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley region as well as the Deep South, though again the GFS model is faster with the progression of the cold front as you can see on the image below (identical to the model composite image shown earlier, but valid at 7pm CDT on Wednesday this time):

The threat on Wednesday could potentially be significant, as is expected on Tuesday, with large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes a distinct threat along and ahead of the cold front across the South.  

If you live in or near the areas described above or have travel plans into these areas for the first half of next week, please remain on alert.  Take the time now to review your severe weather safety and preparedness tips, identify your best sheltering option, and make sure that you will have a way to receive weather warnings.

We'll continue to monitor this situation with additional updates forthcoming as details become more clear...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!