Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Severe Storm, Tornado Threat in Plains Today...

As expected for the past few days, today appears to be potentially the most significant severe weather day this week (although tomorrow could be quite strong in spots as well).

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for today and tonight (click to enlarge the image):

The highest potential for tornadoes and very large (i.e., 2" diameter or larger) hail will likely take place within the reddish-orangish shaded area from northwest Texas through central and northeastern Oklahoma.  This includes the cities of Wichita Falls, Lawton, Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

At this time it appears that storms will fire by mid to late afternoon along the Western edge of the overall severe outlook area, and then move and develop East/Northeast.  The highest tornado potential will take place with isolated storms that are able to become well organized during the first 1-3 hours of development.  After that, the situation will likely translate into primarily a damaging wind event, with a continued threat of hail as well.

Storms will progress East and Southeast into the overnight hours, so please be sure to have a way of receiving weather warnings at night tonight across roughly the Southeastern third of the outlook area, including the Hill Country in southcentral Texas.

By Wednesday, the threat will shift Eastward into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region.  Strong to severe storms will likely be ongoing along the Western edge of the outlook area around dawn tomorrow, progressing Eastward during the day:

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather outlook areas for the next two days, please be sure to stay alert and make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings - no matter what time of day it is or where you might be.

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Anthill_Goddess said...

Every forecast (NWS and local)I've seen includes all of southern IA (below I-80) in a slight risk...do you think that it will mostly be in SE IA as your graphic shows? Yesterday TWC had it confined to SE IA, also, but today they changed it. Just trying to figure out if we're supposed to get hailed on or not!

Rob White said...

Anthill, thanks for the note. I think the primary threat will be East and South of you. This is especially true as a narrow band of storms is already forming from Waterloo to Des Moines and moving East. Once the wind shifts to the North that's pretty much it for you as far as a severe threat goes...