The primary factor that prevented organized severe weather (other than quite a few hail reports) yesterday was the presence of a warm layer of air just above the surface, called a capping inversion. While the "cap" won't be nearly as strong today across the Mississippi Valley region (which will lead to a relatively higher threat of severe weather) it will lead to widespread precipitation development which will mitigate just how intense some of the storms may become.
The highest threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening is forecast within the reddish-orange area on the image above. This includes much of central and eastern Arkansas (including Little Rock), southeast Missouri and the Memphis area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe threat today, however a few tornadoes are also possible, primarily within the aforementioned area in the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region. The tornado threat would be particularly associated with any storm that is able to become well organized and remain isolated in nature, ahead of the more widespread line or lines of activity.
Elsewhere, isolated to scattered instances of mainly hail will be possible with stronger storms within the green and blue shaded areas.
If you live or have travel plans in the severe weather outlook areas for today or tonight, please review severe weather safety and preparedness tips and make sure you're ready to take action if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.
The threat of severe weather will shift into the Deep South and the southeastern U.S. tomorrow:
...again large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, with a risk of a tornado with any storm that is able to remain isolated and form out ahead of the more widespread activity.
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