Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Major Snow Storm Likely Northeast / New England Friday and Saturday...

A major snow event, including blizzard conditions in many areas, is likely across portions of the northeast U.S. and New England on Friday and Saturday.

The European Computer Forecast Model (ECMWF) has been the most aggressive and consistent with this system thus far, and continues to forecast significant, if not "epic" snowfall totals of 2-3 feet, yes feet, across interior portions of Massachusetts and adjacent areas.

The ECMWF model snowfall total forecast valid 7pm EST on Saturday is shown below, with the scale (in inches) on the right:

The U.S. based GFS model is also forecasting a significant snow event, but is not quite as aggressive as the ECMWF.  Below is the GFS snowfall total forecast, also valid 7pm EST on Saturday:

It seems pretty clear that much of New England, including the greater Boston area, will be "hammered" by this system, but the fate of the NYC Metro area is still in question at this hour.

At this point, the model spread for NYC is anywhere from 3 to 20 inches of snow!  We should be able to pin this down a bit more tomorrow as the forecast track of the surface low pressure center becomes more clear.

In addition to the heavy snowfall, widespread, sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts in excess of 50 mph will be possible in some areas, creating very dangerous, blizzard conditions.

Regardless of exactly how much snow is forecast to (or will actually) fall across the region on Friday and Saturday, this will be a massive, widespread storm that will cause major disruptions to air and ground travel, as well as the electric grid.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for much of the region for Friday and Saturday, and I suspect most of this same area will be under a Blizzard Warning by this time tomorrow (valid for all or parts of Friday and Saturday):

If you live across the Northeast and New England, please prepare now and be sure that your pantry is well stocked with non-perishable food, bottled water and other necessary supplies.

Stay tuned for updates tomorrow and Friday...

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1 comment:

jacobmontereal said...

Oh snow storm is dangerous when you did not know it to come and you're outside.

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