Monday, February 18, 2013

Severe Weather Prospects for This Week...

As we've been discussing for the past several days, a vigorous weather disturbance in the middle and upper atmosphere will move out from the Rockies and into the Plains primarily during the middle and end of the week.  This system will spread a variety of hazardous weather to the East of the Rockies, with winter weather on the Northern end and spring-like severe weather on the Southern end.

Right now, low level moisture is already flowing Northward from the Gulf of Mexico across central and eastern Texas, into the Arklatex region, as shown by the latest dew point analysis below:

This will lead to a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a weak frontal boundary later this afternoon and early this evening, as shown in brown and yellow on the image below:

Damaging wind gusts and hail near severe limits will be the primary threats with this activity, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

For tomorrow, severe weather is not expected as the atmosphere will be in transition between the weak system of today and the much stronger one for the middle and end of the week.

By Wednesday, a threat of severe storms will develop, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, across much of central and northern Texas, as shown in yellow on the image below:

Damaging wind gusts and hail near severe limits will be the primary severe weather threat, which includes the DFW Metroplex region.  As this will mainly be a nighttime severe weather threat, please be sure to pay attention to the weather in this region and make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings at night.

As we've been talking about for several days now, a more pronounced threat of severe weather will shift Eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Deep South by Thursday, as shown in red on the image below:

The event on Thursday is likely to be the strongest of the week, with a risk of all severe weather types (tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and some hail).  The overall risk of severe weather will likely be slightly larger than the area shown on Thursday (i.e., extending Southwest through the remainder of Louisiana and the extreme northeast Texas coast, and northeast into portions of Alabama) but the red "bullseye" is meant to convey where the highest risk of severe weather is forecast to take place at this time.

If you live in or near the areas indicated for the various severe weather threats this week, please be sure to pay attention to the weather.  Take a few moments ahead of time to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips, and make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings when the time comes.

Since severe weather hasn't taken place in a few of these areas in awhile, it would also be a good idea to review your sheltering plans and make sure you have a safe place to go in the event of severe weather at home, work, school or anywhere in between.

Widespread rainfall, some locally heavy, will also take place across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South this week.  The total rainfall forecast for today through Friday is shown below.  As you can see, values in excess of 4 inches are forecast across portions of the Deep South:

Stay tuned for updates on this situation over the coming days...

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